•There are many business surveys out there and most have questions, in some shape or form, that are applicable to the labour market. To generate the broadest and deepest labour market indicator possible, Westpac compiles all the relevant indictors from these surveys into the proprietary Westpac Jobs Index.
•The Index eased a little to 48.4 in Nov (now clearly below the long run average) from 49.4 in Oct and 50.8 in Sep. The Index had been on a general firming trend since the low of 45.1 in Apr 2013 and peaked in Sep.
•The Index correctly highlighted some upside momentum in the labour market through the first half of 2014. It was also a key reason why we did not believe the initial Aug 2014 print from the labour force that suggested that employment growth has surged to more than 2.0%yr. We have since seen the ABS significantly revise those numbers.
•The Index had been suggesting that total employment growth could lift to around 2% in early 2014 but now that looks more like a possible temporary bump, if that acceleration does occur at all.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
