Tony stumbles into the witch’s ditch

From The Australian:

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In the past fortnight Labor’s primary vote has risen two points to a 3½-month high of 36 per cent, while support for the Coalition is unchanged at 38 per cent…the ALP holds a crushing lead of 54 to 46 per cent — the reverse of the election result.

…In today’s Newspoll, Mr ­Abbott is for the third time in a row rated as better prime minister over Mr Shorten, ahead by 39 to 38 per cent, unchanged in the past fortnight. The personal ratings of both leaders were largely unchanged. Mr Abbott’s satisfaction eased one point to 37 per cent while his dissatisfaction also fell one point to 52 per cent, leaving his net satisfaction rating (the difference between his satisfaction and dissatisfaction) unchanged at minus 15 points.

And from Roy Morgan:

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In early November ALP support rose to 54.5% (up 2.5%) and now clearly leads the L-NP 45.5% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If an election had been held the ALP would have won easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,117 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

Primary support for the L-NP was down 1% to 38.5% while ALP support rose 2% to 37.5%. Support for the other parties shows The Greens were at 12.5% (up 0.5%) – the highest since April 2014, Palmer United Party (PUP) 3% (down 0.5%) – the lowest since January 2014, while Independents/ Others were down 1% to 8.5%.

Support for PUP is highest in Queensland (5.5%) followed by South Australia 5%. Support for PUP is lower in the rest of Australia: Western Australia (3%), Victoria (2.5%), Tasmania (2.5%) and lowest of all in New South Wales (1.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is highest for the ALP amongst women: ALP (59%, up 5.5%) cf. L-NP (41%, down 5.5%). However, support for the major parties is evenly split amongst men with the L-NP up slightly (50%, up 0.5%) cf. ALP (50%, down 0.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 68.5% cf. L-NP 31.5%; 25-34yr olds favour the ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%; 50-64yr olds are close L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%; and those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in four Australian States. South Australia: ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%; Victoria: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; Tasmania: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%; New South Wales: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%. However the L-NP leads in Western Australia: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% and Queensland: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.

Gary Morgan blames the petrol excise increase and warm feelings for Gough Whitlam. Looks to me rather more like the return of Tony Abbott’s “women problem”, after a little pop on shirt-fronting that directed the aggro they dislike elsewhere. Our Tone needs a much bigger war than the one he has.

And my favourite chart, the two-party preferred relative performances of the past four first term PMs has Tony Abbott neck-and-neck in the “witch’s ditch” once more:

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Houses and Holes
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Comments

  1. Previous governments have come back from fairly poor polling and won. However, the Abbott government have a number of issues:

    1) A very short honeymoon.
    2) Incredibly unpopular policies that were never proposed during the election and most in fact are broken promises.
    3) The biggest will be a soon to be faltering economy (and I suspect crashing housing market) with the end of the mining boom and years of a high AUD.

  2. FWIW, Poll Bludger reckons the ALP’s 2PP numbers are too high in Newspoll and Morgan has always had a heavy ALP bias. I wouldn’t read too much into this. I think its still very close, but the ALP has a slim lead.

    • I understand the ACTU has done some similar polling in the last few weeks suggesting a similar status. The Libs arent popular, but certainly arent dead and buried. Abbott is widely loathed (especially outside NSW and QLD apparently) but Shorten isnt really liked anywhere. I understand the same polling suggested that ‘the Economy’ was the number one issue in the minds of people, but that there was generally little understanding of what it was about ‘the economy’ that was creating unease.

      • Abbott is widely loathed . . . . but Shorten isnt really liked anywhere.

        And therein lies the real problem: a corrupt system of government that throws up two alternatives, neither of which is what The People want.

        A corrupt system of government in which one faction rules on behalf of plutocrat Mates and one faction rules on behalf of union Mates.

        A corrupt system of elective dictatorship in which The People have no effective say in what is being done to their country.

        A corrupt system of government that The People never approved in the first place: never approved in a genuine choice in which all the other options were made available to them.

        A corrupt system of government that cannot be changed unless The People understand that predicament and focus their efforts on changing it.

      • Union mates… snorty…

        When both party’s operate under the supervision of corporatist plutocrats, w/ only ID branding vestige tails, the citizen is reduced to a marketing data point in some meta data Skinners box.

        Give em what they want…

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3M9ncAkKSNM

        Skippy… Competing MBA and Advertising departments is what… you got…

      • “People must be trained to desire…man’s desires must overshadow his needs.”

        This is the root of our malaise. Interchange Abbott for Turnbull for Hockey for Shorten for Burke for Clare for Clive Palmer’s potted plants. Nobody, but NOBODY, at a political level in this or any other developed western country will attempt to dissuade us from continuing along this path of mindless, unconscious consumerism that has rendered the populace so docile, so shallow, so insular, so compliant.

    • Tassie TomMEMBER

      I had a Roy Morgan bloke visit me over the weekend. Unless there is something very subconscious I don’t know how there is ALP bias in the “voter intention” questions.

      Possibly there is selection bias in who they survey, but (not having read it myself) I assume that their selection techniques are published and scrutinized.

      I agree that some of the “public opinion” questions were leading questions, but some were leading questions for the LNP too.

      Come to think of it, I would have told a Newspoll person knocking at my door to “get stuffed”, whereas I let the Roy Morgan bloke in, so perhaps there is bias here too.

  3. it doesn’t matter – Abbott will be re-elected on the national security card. His policies will eventually provoke a terrorist attack and than his victory will be unchallenged – same as George W.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Errr actually W’s event was very early on and at the time he was doing just fine in the polls.

      I think you mean Blair.

  4. As much as I loath the current mob, I find Shorten to be an extremely unimpressive politician.

      • If you took my comment to indicate any sort of voting preference for Team Australia, you would be mistaken 🙂

    • Yep. “Forgettable mediocrity” is the phrase that springs to mind when I think of him.

      And perhaps it’s just me, but he always seems to speak in a patronising and condescending tone, as though he’s explaining the bleedin’ obvious to a class of kindergarten kids. It drives me up the wall.

      I just can’t see a dud like him as the PM of the country, and I say this as a lifelong Labor supporter.

    • “As much as I loath the current mob, I find Shorten to be an extremely unimpressive politician.”

      I think that you’ll find there are plenty of people who agree with both parts of that statement.

    • Tassie TomMEMBER

      The only think more depressing than an incompetent government is an equally incompetent alternative government.

    • General Disarray

      As much as I loath the current mob, I find Shorten to be an extremely unimpressive politician.

      Yep.

    • And that is Labor’s dilemma. There is no one else that is a clear standout candidate for leadership. They’re stuck with Shorten (at least for now) via Shorten’s powerful backers – the same backers that took an age to concede Gillard was a noose around Labor’s neck?

      Labor simply does not have a Bishop or a Turnbull waiting in the wings.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Neither does the Liberal party the way it goes about tarnishing their reputations with harebrained schemes.

      • “And that is Labor’s dilemma.”

        Of course the Coalition’s dilemma is that they’re consistenly behind in the polls even with such a useless opposition leader.

        Please raise your hand if you think a childless woman from WA will be the next Liberal leader?

        Or if you think that Turnbull will ever again win the majority support of the Coalition’s party room?

        It’s not just Labor that doesn’t have a credible leader waiting in the wings (or even as current leader).

      • You mean the charming, witty, highly intelligent, hard working, occasionally flirtatious, superbly presented Ms Julie Bishop.

        She’s the real deal.

        Of course each of the above could be said of Turnbull but Bishop would salvage the ‘Female PM’ crown so ruthlessly trashed by Gillard.

      • Tassie TomMEMBER

        Bogans don’t want a woman in charge, and there are a lot of bogans out there. The LNP has a better understanding of this than the ALP or Greens, and they are smart enough not to verbalize it.

        A few bogans wear HRT polo-shirts and caps and sport goatie beards, but many many more, male and female, are working next to you, serving you at shops and restaurants, buying goods or services from you, etc. They come in all shapes and sizes, have all sorts of attitudes, but a few things are remarkably consistent features among them:

        1) They are self-centred and feel “owed” and “entitled”
        2) They portray their life to be better than it is – in terms of happiness, success, and wealth.
        3) They have a remarkably consistent dislike of migrants.
        4) Male or female – they don’t like having a woman in charge.

      • He’s in lurv!

        It just goes to show that a well bred private school girl can represent any one (including companies possibly hiding asbestos problems) and be ‘respected’.

        Too bad she has not been in-child.

      • “You mean the charming, witty, highly intelligent, hard working, occasionally flirtatious, superbly presented Ms Julie Bishop.”

        Well no, that’s not actually what I meant but we’re all entitled to our own opinions.

        The Liberal party room will not vote for an umarried, childless (“deliberately barren” is the correct description according to Bill Heffernan), Western Australian woman. Not now, not in ten years’ time and for who knows for how long after that.

        I’d be surprised if they elected someone with any single one of those characteristics, let alone all four.

      • Good song! Nah, I just think she could probably do a fine job as PM – I also think Abbott is now doing better than most give credit for – so Jules may have to wait.

        Next election push the campaign using all three, Cormanator’s pretty good too. Get Joe to smile lots and tell jokes. Biggest problem is hostility from most media…

  5. I think there is an “Ebola effect” too.

    Incumbent governments get a boost in a crisis if they are seen to be acting decisively. And a drop in support if they do not act in a crisis, real or perceived.

    So, the aggressive response to the ISIL situation helped the government. However, the piss poor response to the Ebola crisis made the government look weak in many eyes, uncaring in others, and reinforced a vague perception out there in uncommitted voterland of something not quite right.