Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.
The Canton Fair is less important these days and Ebola fears kept at least a few Africans from attending, but it might also be a weaker global economy…Weaker orders at Canton Fair signal China export boost may not be sustainable
China’s bellwether import-export trade fair showed a decline in orders year-on-year, indicating that strong external demand which helped buoy growth in the third quarter may not be sustainable in the final three months of the year.
The China Import and Export Fair, popularly known as the Canton Fair, generated 179.2 billion yuan ($29.30 billion), organizers said in a statement on Tuesday, the final day of the event that began on Oct. 15. That’s 8.6 percent less than last fall’s fair after accounting for currency fluctuations.
Ebola fears were blamed for keeping visitors away:
Attendance at the fair declined by a slim 1.9 percent from the same period a year earlier with worries over the Ebola virus epidemic potentially leading some to stay home. State-run China Daily quoted the fair’s spokesman in mid-October saying Ebola and domestic dengue fever epidemics would likely affect attendance and that Africans would not be barred from the event.
Medical workers at the fair held in Guangzhou, the provincial capital of Guangdong province, donned full protection suits and checked visitors for signs of the Ebola virus that has killed nearly 5,000 people, mostly in West Africa.
The 8.6% decline in orders was an improvement from the double digit losses in the spring. The decline in visitors picked up from the spring, but the rate of decline slowed there as well. Still, it was an absolute decline in both visitors and orders and points to slowing growth in the coming year.
And there is this as well, revenue at Macau casinos falls by a record 23 per cent in October:
The mainland’s crackdown on graft, protests in Hong Kong and a ban on smoking indoors combined last month to create a perfect storm for Macau’s casino industry, with gross gaming revenue plunging 23.2 per cent year on year to 28.025 billion patacas.
It was the fifth straight monthly decline and the largest on record since the city started collecting data in 2005. But it was in line with analyst forecasts of a drop of around 22 per cent.
On Monday, Macau’s secretary for economy and finance, Francis Tam Pak-yuen, warned that the decline would top the previous record set in January 2009, after the global financial crisis, when revenue fell 17.1 per cent. “Although it has already dropped for the fifth consecutive month, we still predict the slowdown of gaming revenue growth will continue for a period of time,” Tam said.
These type of stories keep coming up and there’s always an explanation for why it isn’t the business cycle. Deeper in the story it says mass market (middle class) gamblers may have still increased, so that lends some credence to the argument that the smoking ban and anti-corruption campaign are responsible. Las Vegas doesn’t have a smoking ban in casinos and high rollers insensitive to prices are likely make the trip to gamble in comfort.
