The Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflationary Expectations survey for November is in, and reveals a 0.7% jump in expected inflation over the next 12 months to 4.1% from 3.4% in October (see below table).
According to the release:
…the proportion of respondents expecting increases in prices fell to 73.2 per cent from 75.2 per cent in October while the the proportion anticipating no price change rose to 20.4 per cent from 19.0 per cent in October. The proportion of respondents anticipating falls in prices decreased slightly to 1.5 per cent from 2.0 per cent in October.
The proportion of survey respondents expecting annual inflation to fall within the RBA target band has fallen considerably for the last four months (Figure 1), to 19.0 per cent in November from 25.5 per cent in October, 28.2 per cent in September and 30.6 per cent in August. This result is well below the 12-month average of 25.5 per cent.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
