Hello Joe, says $51 billion budget black hole

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From Peter Martin today:

The Senate and the deteriorating iron ore price have knocked a $51 billion hole in Treasurer Joe Hockey’s first budget, an independent analysis has found. It says part of the problem is that the budget is seen as “unfair”.

…Whereas the Treasury expected a budget deficit of $29.8 billion this financial year, sliding to just $2.8 billion in 2017-18, Macroeconomics expects a deficit of $47.8 billion slipping to a still high $24 billion in 2017-18.

…”The real problem with the first Hockey Budget is that it is seen as unfair. It imposes too much of the adjustment burden on the disadvantaged rather than wealthy Australians who would benefit most from a resurgent economy driven by structural budget repairs.”

…”Any savings shortfall can be funded by winding back superannuation concessions.”

Hear, hear. And if he doesn’t find the savings then Standard Poors awaits with its downgrade if we breach 30% net debt:

terwa

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Prepare for a nasty MYEFO and new blow to consumer confidence just in time for Chrissy.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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