Nine out of eleven developers that have reported September sales showed a MoM increase. Sales were strong in September with a 22% MoM increase, which should help them catch up to their full-year targets. On average, the eleven developers have achieved 72% of their full-year targets by the end of September. ASP edged up slightly by 2% to Rmb10,950/sqm.
According to Caijing news, ICBC and CCB have come up with the details of the new mortgage policies, after the announcement from PBOC and CBRC to relax the definition of a first-home mortgage on 30 Sep. China Merchant Bank has already started offering their new mortgage policies on 8 Oct. We expect more commercial banks to follow suit, which we believe will be a big help to homebuyers, especially for those buying second homes.
On the other hand, the Ningbo Government announced more measures to support the local property market by providing monetary subsidies at 0.7-1% of property prices to university graduates who buy their first homes.
Again, better on the seasonal bounce and mortgage easing but not tearaway and the charts are not strong enough to declare a bottom. If anything it still looks a bit bull trapish. FYI, Mac Bank has been bullish on property all year.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
