Dr No in low blow vow to build local submarines

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ScreenHunter_2538 May. 22 14.27

By Leith van Onselen

Labor Leader, Bill Shorten, has doffed his hat to his union mates and vowed to cancel any deal struck by the Coalition to have 12 submarines built in Japan, thus ensuring the work is done locally. From The Australian:

The Opposition Leader said the ALP would not be bound by any contracts signed by the ­Coalition to buy the next fleet of submarines from Japan, saying naval projects should ensure “jobs for Aussies”…

Mr Shorten invoked World War II to warn against a deal with the Japanese.

“This is a government with a short memory,” he said. “In the Second World War, 366 merchant ships were sunk off Australia”…

“They are contracting out the defence of Australia, they are fighting for jobs in foreign countries, not our own, and … in uncertain times, they are playing with fire with our national security”…

“Let me put on the record, Labor, if elected, will build submarines in Australia, unequivocally…

The Australian has also been told our navy’s submariners know how good the Japanese Soryu class is… The Soryu is said to be extremely quiet and the Americans, who have also exercised with the Soryus extensively, have urged Australia to buy them.

While I too would like to see the submarines built in Australia, the decision should not be at any cost. According to estimates, the Japanese should be able to provide the submarines for around half the cost of building them locally, saving Australian taxpayers at least $20 billion. That’s no small sum – particularly in light of the ongoing pressures on the Budget – and in my view the huge savings far outweigh the few thousand jobs that would be generated if the submarines were built in South Australia.

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We should also not forget that the billions of taxpayer dollars saved could be put to other uses, such as health, education, or infrastructure, which would also boost jobs and potentially provide greater benefits to the broader community.

In my view, Prime Minister Tony Abbott struck the right balance when he explained:

“The most important thing is to get the best and most capable submarines at a reasonable price for the Australian taxpayer’…

“We should make decisions here based on defence requirements, not on the basis of industry policy . . .’’.

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I also believe that evoking memories of World War II to help scuttle the Japanese submarine deal is a low blow by Shorten. Japan has been a reliable ally of Australia for decades and is still our second most important trading partner. Shorten’s comments are childish and risk inflaming relations between the two countries.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.