When will Australian interest rates rise?

AMP Q1 2015
ANZ Q2 2015
BankAm-ML Q1 2016
Barclays Q1 2015
BNP-Paribas 2016
CBA Q1 2015
Citigroup Q2 2015
Deutsche Bank not before 2016
Goldman Sachs November 2015
HSBC H1 2015
JP Morgan Q3 2015
Macquarie Q1 2016
Moody’s Late Q1 2015
NAB late 2015
Nomura H1 2015
RBC Capital Q4 2015
St George Q1 2015
StanChart Q1 2015
TD Securities Q1 2015
UBS May/June 2015
Westpac Q3 2015

MB still expects the next move to be down as the China adjustment and terms of trade falls outpace expectations, nominal growth and income get hammered, the Budget misses again, and consumers keep saving. Markets still marginally favour the MB view, forecasting 3bps of cuts in the next 12 months:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.