What to expect from megabank profits


A few snippets from UBS for the bank profits rush in the few days:

CBA (Wed, 13th Aug): FY14E NPAT $8,697m +12%, EPS 536.2c +11%, DPS 217c

  • We expect a strong FY14E result from CBA, with solid revenue growth, positivejaws, and continuing low bad debts.
  • Capital will be a key focus of the result, and while CBA’s CET1 ratio (UBSe9.1%) should be supported by equity investment sales, the market will be more focused on capital adequacy in a post-Financial System Inquiry setting.
  • FY14E: Rev +8.1%, Costs +5.8%. Core earnings +9.9%.
  • BDD charges likely to remain benign, around 14bp for FY14E. Rising asset prices will likely support lower levels of provisioning and general improvements in asset quality, particularly in BankWest.

ANZ (Fri, 15th Aug): 3Q14E NPAT ~$1.81bn, BDD ~$275m

  • Trading update only
  • Commentary expected to indicate good volume growth, despite housingslowing a touch in recent months relative to system.
  • Margin commentary likely to indicate pressure across corporate and institutional elevated, but not deteriorating much.

NAB (Mon, 18th Aug): 3Q14E NPAT ~$1.65m BDD ~$230m

  • Trading update only
  • NAB’s trading update is likely to highlight ongoing issues around core earnings(revenue) growth.
  • In its recent market update on the sale of the £625m portfolio of UK CRE loans, NAB highlighted the ongoing headwinds facing its UK operations, with conduct-related issues likely to again be a feature of its 3Q14 update.


  • WBC provides no quarterly earnings update, only some commentary around itsregulatory disclosures.
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