It’s polling day and take your pick. Newspoll has a bounce for the Coalition to 48-42:
But Roy Morgan has the opposite:
The ALP has increased its support to 56% (up 1.5%) over the L-NP (44%, down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after last week’s ABS unemployment figures showed Australian unemployment rising to a 17 year high of 789,000 (6.4%) and the Government set to impose additional requirements on Australians collecting unemployment benefits.
Support rose slightly for all minor parties this week. The Greens rose to 11% (up 0.5%), the Palmer United Party (PUP) rose 0.5% to 5.5% and Independents/ Others rose 0.5% to 8%.
Support for the PUP is highest in the three states which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (10.5%), Tasmania (8.5%) and Western Australia (5%). Support for PUP is lower in New South Wales (3.5%), Victoria (3.5%) and South Australia (4.5%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is strongest amongst women with the ALP 58% well ahead of the L-NP 42% on a two-party preferred basis while men also clearly now support the ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP with its strongest advantage among younger Australians most affected by the Abbott Government’s proposed requirements on Australians collecting unemployment benefits. 18-24yr olds favour the ALP (67.5%, up 7%) cf. L-NP (32.5%, down 7%); 25-34yr olds favour the ALP (66.5%, up 2%) cf. L-NP (33.5%, down 2%); 35-49yr olds favour the ALP (58%, up 2%) cf. L-NP (42%, down 2%); 50-64yr olds narrowly favour the ALP (51.5%, down 3.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%, up 3.5%); while those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP (55.5%, down 3.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%, up 3.5%).
Analysis by States
The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%, Victoria: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%, Queensland: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Western Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, South Australia: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5% and Tasmania: ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%.
The RM government confidence measure is at its lows as well:
And here’s my TPP first term PMs chart based upon RM data:
Still looks like the Libs are on the nose, more or less.
