The property cycle has turned (members)

By Leith van Onselen

Yesterday’s house price release from the ABS, along with the latest housing finance data, has provided an early indication that the housing bull market that has been in effect for the past two years might be nearing its end.

Arguably the single best short-term indicator for house price growth – real housing finance commitments – has begun to turn down which, given past strong correlations, suggests that real price growth nationally will continue to slow throughout the remainder of this year and into next year, with the possibility of price falls thereafter (see next chart).