From Moody’s today:
The demographic dividend that drove economic growth in the past will turn into a demographic tax that will ultimately slow this growth for most countries worldwide.
By 2020, the number of ‘super-aged’ societies will increase to 13 globally from three today. The UN defines populations with more than 20% elderly as ‘super-aged’. By 2030, 34 countries will be super-aged.
…All countries, except a handful in Africa, will face either a slower-growing or declining working-age population, and corresponding pressures on labor supply. Furthermore, 16 countries will see a decline of over 10 per cent in their working-age population in the same period.
…Academic estimates indicate that a one percentage point (pp) rise in the old age dependency ratio (i.e., the ratio of population aged 65+ to the population 15-64) will lead to a 0.5-1.2 pp decline in the average savings rate.
…In a sample of 55 developed and emerging market economies, The Conference Board estimates that due to aging aggregate annual growth rates will decline by 0.4 per cent during 2014-19 and by 0.9 per centduring 2020-25 from the 1990-2005 average annual growth rate of 2.9 per cent.
