From Newspoll:
Looks like Tony and Rupert may have finally have picked themselves a winner in “terror”. Meanwhile, from Roy Morgan:
ALP support fell to 55.5% (down 0.5%) still well ahead of the L-NP 44.5%, (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election had been held the ALP would have won easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,691 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends – August 16/17 & 23/24, 2014.
The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll*, show the ALP (54%) cf. L-NP (46%) – for trends see Morgan Poll historic data table.
Despite ALP support falling slightly on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP rose slightly to 38.5% (up 0.5% over the past fortnight) whilst the L-NP primary support was unchanged at 37.5%. Support amongst the other parties shows The Greens fell to 10.5% (down 0.5%), the Palmer United Party (PUP) fell 1% to 4.5% after PUP Leader Clive Palmer’s outburst against the Chinese Government last week while Independents/ Others rose 1% to 9%.
Support for PUP is highest in two of the three States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (6.5%) and Tasmania (6.5%). Support for PUP is lower in New South Wales (4%), Victoria (3%), Western Australia (4%) and South Australia (4.5%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows ALP support is strongest amongst women: ALP 58% well ahead of the L-NP 42% on a two-party preferred basis. However even among men the ALP is ahead (ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds favour the ALP (64%) cf. L-NP (36%); 25-34yr olds favour the ALP (64.5%) cf. L-NP (35.5%); 35-49yr olds favour the ALP (60.5%) cf. L-NP (39.5%); 50-64yr olds narrowly favour the ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%); only among those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP (54.5%) cf. ALP (45.5%).
Analysis by States
The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%, Victoria: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Queensland: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%, Western Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%, South Australia: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5% and Tasmania: ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 94pts this week (up 1.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 44% (down 1%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and 38% (up 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!
And my own favourite chart:
