Budget sticker shock passes

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ScreenHunter_15 Mar. 18 16.24

By Leith van Onselen

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research (RMR) consumer confidence index has recorded a much needed bounce, rising 3.6 points in the week ended 13 July to 108.7, and is now 4.4% below the long-run average reading of 113.7, and some 6.4% lower than April’s pre-Budget high (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_3307 Jul. 15 11.46

That said, the ANZ-RMR consumer confidence index is up 9.5% from its post-Budget low, suggesting the consumer’s mood continues to improve as the “sticker shock” from the Budget wears-off.

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The below chart, which plots the most recent Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Sentiment index against the ANZ-RM Consumer Confidence index, highlights the mood of the Australian consumer more clearly:

ScreenHunter_3308 Jul. 15 11.50

Still some way to go, but at least confidence is heading back in the right direction.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.