TD inflation pulse eases

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The TD Securities/Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge for May is out at .3% and year on year is 2.9% (chart from COMMSEC).

Underlying inflation came in at 0.2% down from +0.5% in April and 2.9% year on year, down from 3.1% in April.

Fruit and vegetables, furniture and tobacco rose and holiday travel and accommodation, health, footwear and petrol fell. Annette Beacher didn’t get the Budget or iron ore memo:

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“The clear signal from our gauge is that inflation remains sticky and the `soft’ prior March quarter consumer price index report could prove to be a one-off. We believe the recent substantial upgrade to 2014/15 services investment plans should be well received, and combined with the leap in residential construction in the early months of 2014 proves that non-mining activity can offset the decline in mining investment. The market remains too complacent by not pricing any rate rises over the next twelve months.”

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.