Retailer warnings will hit capex hopes

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The SMH blog notes today that:

Consumer electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi has reaffirmed its full-year earnings guidance despite slower than expected sales growth.

JB Hi-Fi now expects total sales for the year ending June 30 to rise 5.3 per cent, compared with a previous forecast for 6 to 8 per cent growth.

The new guidance suggests that JB-Hi-Fi, like many discretionary retailers, has experienced a sharp drop in sales growth momentum in the June quarter.

However, JB Hi-Fi still expects to report full-year net profit between $126 million and $129 million, up 8.3 per cent to 10.8 per cent.

More than half a dozen retailers including Pacific Brands, Super Retail Group, Funtastic, footwear chain RCG Group and Noni B have downgraded earnings forecasts in the last month after a sharp fall in sales post the May budget.

If JB is till going to make its profit guidance despite slowing top line growth then it’s going to reducing costs somewhere – jobs or capex.

In the recent capex upsurge it was retail that dominated:

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I suspect Australian “rebalancing” is more behind than ahead.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.