Chinese real estate won’t crash!

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Below find a selection of links from today’s Sinocism issue focused on Chinese property:

稳增长信号再释放:7.5%“下限论”替代“左右论”_财经频道_一财网is 7.5% the government’s real bottom line for China’s GDP growth this year? CBN says it is now // 从多机构发布的研报和《第一财经日报》采访的多名专家观点来看,目前高层意向一致,稳增长信号明确加强,下半年将持续强化“微刺激”政策。但此次刺激有别于以往,政府将采取更多新型宏观调控手段,兼顾调结构促改革,逐步实现“市场起决定性作用”和“有为政府”的平衡以及相互促进。 一名接近高层的官方研究人士22日对《第一财经日报》称,“经济增速7.5%是绝对数”的理解是偏颇的,但实现经济目标的增长,不仅能给改革提供更宽松的环境,对人民生活水平的提高和社会对经济的预期有重要作用,更是回击“唱空论调”的有力武器。

Related:住建部密集调研 棚改料加力_宏观_中证网Party Secretary of Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has recently made several recent inspection tours of shantytowns, looks like there will be even more efforts directed towards shantytown redevelopment, aka more investment stimulus  // 住建部党组书记陈政高日前赴湖南调研,并在长沙、株洲、湘潭三地考察了公租房廉租房小区、棚户区改造项目建设情况。这是陈政高履新住建部不到两个月来,进行调研的第四站,调研重点直指棚户区改造。分析人士认为,如此密集的调研节奏,或意味着棚改工作将被置于更为重要的地位。

Cities eye ‘house-for-hukou’ to boost property market | China Daily Forget about handsome discounts and promotional giveaways, lower property prices are no longer tempting enough to lure prudent buyers to a housing market mired in a downward spiral. But some Chinese cities have found new bait to whet the appetite – easier access to hukou.//analysts expecting China’s real estate markets to all crash need to explain why politically that makes sense for Beijing…Yes, the government still has many levers to stem outright crashes…China may be kicking things down the road, but the country has a lot of feet, and a lot of road left even with the recent debt surge

Related:楼市进入白银时代(感言)–山西频道–人民网Vanke CEO talks with People’s Daily, says that while the days of making easy money in China real estate are over, the market is definitely not like the Titanic heading towards an iceberg, as SOHO China’s Pan Shiyi claimed

Related:限价政策执行现松动 开发商:“本身也不敢高报”_财经频道_一财网price restrictions on new real estate developments appear to be loosening, even in Beijing-CBN // 目前无任何书面或口头示意北京限价政策趋松,但今年以来,北京一些开发商感觉到,北京对房地产项目入市价格限制,正在执行中低调松动。 而在广州,虽然公开层面上没有政策调整,但购房环节已经逐渐放松了价格限制。 “就是放开限价,开发商也不敢高报。”业内人士表示,目前的市场环境下,推盘成为开发商的首选,即使放开限价,也不会出现太高涨幅,是限价政策退出的好时机。

Related:广州楼市低调松绑:政府对开发商口头传达不发文_财经频道_一财网price restrictions loosening in Guangzhou  // 增 城、从化放开限价,中心区高价盘限签松动,广州人才入户全面开闸带来购房名额增加……广州楼市调控政策在微调。

Related:人民日报:楼市遭别有用心者唱空 房价调整正常 |房价调整|楼市唱空|房地产政策_新浪财经_新浪网People’s Daily Overseas Edition says people with ulterior motives are saying China’s property market is crashing, when in fact it is just going through a period of adjustment  // 年初至今,各地房地产市场成交量持续低迷,一时间,“崩盘论”、“拐点论”、“银行破产论”等悲观论调甚嚣尘上。专家指出,目前楼市已进入正常调整期,要警惕别有用心者唱空楼市的真正目的——扰乱市场,误导政策,满足私利。

Related:房地产下楼梯_杂志频道_财新网this week’s Caixin looks at the real estate market, says in a period of adjustment but will not crash // 在房地产市场出现分化的情况下,中央层面的房地产调控政策也已发生变化。住建部总经济师冯俊表示,调控的主要目标是追求供求平衡、市场平稳。现在的房地产市场确实出现了一定分化,有些地方库存量过大,有些地方比较短缺。对此,今年政府工作报告已经提出了“分类调控”的基本原则。对那些库存量大的、供过于求的城市,要执行好首套房最低首付款比例、贷款利率优惠的政策,目的是满足自住型的、改善性住房需求;对供求矛盾比较突出、房价上涨压力比较大的城市,要加快中小套型普通商品住房的供应,形成有效供给,继续遏制投资、投机性需求,也要增加共有产权住房的供应。

I would summarise it this way. It is not in Beijing’s interest to see a real estate crash but it is in its interest to engineer a slowing in investment and that means it can’t let realty prices off the leash again. With current levels of oversupply that risks a disordered correction among developers and those falling prices could infect demand. Beijing has many levers to pull, yes, but there are market forces at work here too.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.