Budget slams D&B business expectations

Dun and Bradstreet’s May update of business expectations for the quarter ahead is beginning to erode right on cue. The Budget has everyone spewing:

Sales have begun to fall back:

It’s carnage in retail:

Profits have died:

Employment held up:

As did capex:

But they won’t. As profits disappear so will they. Selling prices are sticky:

There is a very easy way to read this index. Expectations for the quarter ahead are simply an extrapolation of current quarter conditions. Ironically there fore it always lags pivot points in the market and is actually a lagging not leading indicator.

At this stage it is yet to capture deteriorating 2nd quarter conditions so expectations are going to get worse over the next few months.