From Crikey’s Bernard Keane and Glenn Dyer today:
It’s clear now that the Hockey’s doom-laden growth predictions will be exceeded: the economy picked up in the second half of 2013, meaning we entered 2014 with growth at 2.8%, according to the December quarter national accounts. The Reserve Bank’s forecast in February (the RBA provides ranges over the longer term) was for growth this year centring on 2.75%, lifting to 3% in 2015. At this point, only a really severe El Nino might disrupt a return to trend growth and above in later 2015. It’s also clear that forecasts made last year about unemployment reaching 6.25% are now very unlikely to be met. Hockey downgraded the unemployment forecast for this year from 6.25% in the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook to 6% in the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, but left the 6.25% forecast for 2014-15 in place. Today’s April jobs data from theAustralian Bureau of Statistics show unemployment steady at 5.8% seasonally adjusted, with just over 14,000 jobs created in the month, all of them full-time. Unemployment appears to have peaked at the end of 2013, consistent with the economy recovering since then.
Well, I’m glad the recovery is all so clear to them because the jury is completely out so far as MB is concerned. The risks include confidence, the terms of trade and the capex cliff. The RBA, Treasury and old hands are all being very sensibly cautious around these questions and any return to trend growth is highly questionable at this juncture.
Journalists parsing economic data and matrices so that they can take pot shots at politicians does not flatter either their profession or the interests of the nation that they purport to serve.
Lifts your sights from The Pascometer, Crikey!
