Roy Morgan/ANZ consumer confidence hit again

No rebound in sight yet:

ScreenHunter_2584 May. 27 11.10

Consumer confidence fell a further 1.1% to 99.3 in the week ending 25 May. Confidence is now down 15% over the past five weeks when various Budget policies first made news headlines. While the decline was relatively more modest compared to previous weeks, confidence has now dipped below 100 – the ‘neutral line’ – for the first time since May 2009.

  • Respondents’ perceptions of ‘economic conditions next year’ fell a sharp 6.2%, while moves across all other subindices were relatively modest. For example, perceptions of ‘financial situation compared to a year ago’ which is most correlated with households’ spending growth rose 1% last week. After having fallen relatively sharply over the past two months, however, this series continues to suggest consumer spending could soften in the near term.
  • At this stage, ANZ’s bottom line for the household consumption outlook remains that consumer spending will improve this year, although the confidence impacts from the Budget may weigh on the speed of that recovery.

Here’s how the Roy Morgan/ANZ measure of consumer confidence is tracking against Westpac’s monthly gauge, which also fell heavily last week:

ScreenHunter_2585 May. 27 11.11

Houston, we have a problem.


  1. It feels like we are back to the future a re-run of 2010-2013. Confidence down, terms of trade down and house prices (apparently) heading down.

    • The problem is obvious – it wasn’t kicked hard enough. Let’s try again. It’s worked so well for the Japanese.

  2. Just heard on the radio an ad for some finance company that was directed at old people, it had a fictitious old woman narrating it trying to talk her husband into it, where you can release your home equity for this and that….and….uni fees for your grand kiddies! Hahahaha!

    That was quick.

    Good thing we’ve got an opposition wanting to reign in the FIRE sector, oh, no, we don’t.

    • “Good thing we’ve got an opposition wanting to reign in the FIRE sector, oh, no, we don’t.”

      At least the FOFA rules were a start.

      The ones that Sinondis (former NAB senior executive), and Hockey (husband of senior investment banker) are so keen to get rid of?

      Yeah, let’s stick with the Libs and lash out at Labor.

      • I voted informal in the lower house. Don’t blame me.

        At least they stopped the boats.

      • BubbleyMEMBER

        Refusing to talk about the boats is not stopping the boats.

        Hiding behind “operational concerns” is lying and deceitful. The public dont have a clue what is going on because we now have a fascist government.

        (fascist as in the traditional meaning of extreme right-wing dictatorial type of government.)

  3. We have reacted to a lying government that has delivered a Budget of Betrayal.

    Lower and middle quintiles can all see their net income’s after transfer payments going down (Based on NATSEM/Crawford analysis) so they are being cautious.

    Those with kids at high school in the top 3rd of the class know they will now face much higher HECS up front to help their kids get through uni and they will know that they have to start putting the money away now, because the cost to the student of not paying up front is likely to double with deregulated fees and a higher proportion paid and higher real interest payable on the debt..

    They know they have a prime minister who has no empathy, who lies, who betrayed their trust and who lied about betraying them and lied about the burden sharing.

    It’s a time for caution and that means that small businesses will suffer at the profits and cashflow lines. It won’t have been worth the measly tax cuts that they got.

    Abbott, the liar in chief, is an economic and political disaster, aided and abetted by the cigar chomper in chief!

  4. Six months ago, I was being told to change my projections for the Victorian market because confidence was going to go through the roof with the change of government. good thing I didn’t or else we would be really in the poop.