The second the AIG PMIs is out this morning and is another fizzer:
The sales sub-index in the Australian PSI® fell sharply again in April, dropping by 5.1 points to 44.6 points, the lowest reading since August 2013 and slightly below its 12-month average.
• The new orders sub-index in the Australian PSI® moved 2.0 points lower, to 49.8 points, following three months of expansion (readings above 50 points) in new orders in the first quarter of 2014.
• Services employment continued to contract this month, albeit at a slower pace, with the employment index in the Australian PSI® moving up by 2.4 points to 47.7 points.
• Supplier deliveries expanded in April, with the sub-index rising by 5.4 points to 53.7 points. Stock levels also strengthened slightly this month, possibly reflecting increased inventory holdings in the lead-up to this year’s extended Easter holiday period. The inventories sub-index moved up by 0.6 points to 50.4 points. Both sub-indexes remain above their respective 12-month averages.
• Capacity utilisation across the services industries decreased by 1.2 percentage points to an average of 77.1% of current capacity being utilised in April.
Here are the internals which show sales were hardest hit:
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Slowing marginal indicators are mounting up. There is nothing disastrous happening, but the post-election bounce appears to have peaked in the first quarter and the economy has been slowing since. It’s more of a lull at this stage but given the capex cliff is likely to get worse as the year rolls on, a loss of momentum at this stage will make the second half look rather like last year’s underwhelming performance.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.