The IMF released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) and forecast that as the global healing goes on, Australia will be left behind. For the world, the IMF sees a rebound to 3.6% growth in 2014 from 3 per cent last year, and another up leg to to 3.9 per cent in 2015. This is based upon us growth at 2.8% and 3%, European growth at 1.7% and 1.9% and Chinese growth at 7.5% and 7.3% respectively for 2014 and 2015. Slightly optimistic but not unreasonably so as a base case.
For Australia it’s more of the same, stumbling along:
These forecasts are slightly above Treasury’s MYEFO at 2.5% for 13/14 and 14/15, although the years don’t completely match. The RBA’s forecasts are similar to the IMF for 2014 but are miles ahead at 3.5% for 2015.
Remember that such growth will have a very high net exports component so it will feel much worse on the ground.
Full report here.
