If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would still be elected (52%, up 0.5% over the past two weeks) over the L-NP (48%, down 0.5%) according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll.
This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (April 12/13 & 19/20, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,955 Australian electors aged 18+. The L-NP primary vote is 38.5% (unchanged) well ahead of the ALP 34% (down 0.5%).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 13% (up 1%) – the highest Greens vote since the Federal Election, support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/Others is 9.5% (down 0.5%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP 55% well ahead of the L-NP 45% on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men is much closer with the L-NP 51% ahead of the ALP on 49%.
Analysis by States
The ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in four of the six Australian States. Victoria: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%, Queensland: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Western Australia: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.
However the L-NP leads in both New South Wales: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48% and Tasmania: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%.
What struck me more, however, is this chart:
The chart is based upon the question: is Australian headed in the right or wrong direction? It says volumes that despite a change of government and 180 degree turn, we have completely failed to break out of the lowly trend of going south.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
