Extension below .9253/51 should keep the bias lower to test early April low at .9205 next.
AUDUSD has bounced initially at price support at .9253. Resistance at .9302 needs to cap keep the immediate biaslower for a clear break of .9253 to challenge the .9205 early April low next. While this should be allowed to hold at first, a break would be expected in due course for a test of what we would expect to be better support at .9174/53 – the 38.2% retracement of the January/April rally, uptrend from late January and the 200-day average. Above .9302 can see a small base for .9315, then .9332, which we look to try and cap. Above can see a deeper recovery, but only above .9380 eases the immediate downside bias.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
