Who at Treasury should be sacked?

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From the ABC:

In the interview with 7.30, Dr Henry did not shy away from criticising the Prime Minister and his Treasurer.

He says Mr Hockey should not have questioned the Treasury Department’s economic forecasts in the lead-up to last year’s election.

“I was disappointed to see the attacks. I know how difficult it is to produce economic forecasts,” he said.

“A department is unable to defend itself in public if it is attacked by a politician.

“Joe should not have made those comments.”

As for Mr Abbott, Dr Henry says he is unimpressed by the announcement, shortly after being sworn in as Prime Minister, that the Secretary of the Treasury Department, Martin Parkinson, would be leaving the post.

Dr Henry says it is unprecedented in the Department’s 113-year history.

“No government has ever thought it appropriate to remove the head of the Treasury and put in someone who is … of a more comfortable political character,” he said.

“Now, I’m not saying that is what has motivated the Prime Minister on this occasion, it may be, but I really don’t know.

“But if that is what’s intended, that would be a very disappointing move and quite a historic one.”

Mr Hockey’s office declined to comment.

I can’t claim any particular insight into appropriate protocols around hiring and firing in the public service. I certainly agree that political motivations should never be a consideration.

But whether or not economic forecasting is “hard” is really beside the point. There needed to be some accountability for the Treasury’s terrible recent forecasting record. The former Labor government could probably rightly claim that it played a role in bringing it down given Wayne Swan embarked upon vehement fiscal tightening that pushed growth into a sub-trend path that was based, in part, upon fanciful economic forecasts.

It may not be de rigueur for a Treasurer to publicly criticise the Treasury’s performance but what about the public’s faith in this vital institution? The budget forecasts misses were very big and a little accountability may well restore lost faith. Let’s not forget as well that Joe Hockey’s enforced bearishness is going to be well short of the actual downside result!

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We shouldn’t be holding our public servants to unrealistic benchmarks but nor should they get off scott-free when screw-ups have large national significance.

Happy to hear any views about what the answer is.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.