If a Federal Election were held today it would result in a clear ALP victory – two-party preferred support is ALP 54.5% (up 1% since the Morgan Poll of March 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) cf. L-NP 45.5% (down 1%) according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (March 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,909 Australian electors aged 18+.
The ALP primary vote is 38.5% (up 1.5%) now ahead of the L-NP 38% (down 1.5%) for the first time since last year’s September Election.
Among the minor parties Greens support is 11% (down 1%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 4.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (up 0.5%). Support for PUP is highest in Western Australia (10.5%) – which faces a Senate election in under two weeks.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (57%, unchanged since March 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (43%, unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men now favours the ALP 52.5% (up 3.5%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 3.5%).
Analysis by States
The ALP leads in Australia’s three largest States. NSW: ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%), Victoria: ALP (55%) cf. L-NP (45%) and Queensland: ALP (56.5%) cf. L-NP (43 .5%).
In Western Australia the ALP (52%) leads the L-NP (48%) only two weeks before Western Australia votes in a special half-Senate election on April 5. The ALP also leads narrowly in South Australia and leads in Tasmania after both States elected new State Governments during the surveying period.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 100 (up 5pts). Now 41.5% (up 3.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (down 1.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.
Also from The Australian, where putting lippy on the Lib’s pig is becoming an art form, Newspoll registered 52-48 in favour of Labor on a two-party preferred basis, with the Greens back up to 13%.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
