Polls: Labor streaks ahead

From Roy Morgan today:

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If a Federal Election were held today it would result in a clear ALP victory – two-party preferred support is ALP 54.5% (up 1% since the Morgan Poll of March  1/2 & 8/9, 2014) cf. L-NP 45.5% (down 1%) according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (March 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,909 Australian electors aged 18+.

The ALP primary vote is 38.5% (up 1.5%) now ahead of the L-NP 38% (down 1.5%) for the first time since last year’s September Election.

Among the minor parties Greens support is 11% (down 1%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 4.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (up 0.5%). Support for PUP is highest in Western Australia (10.5%) – which faces a Senate election in under two weeks.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (57%, unchanged since March 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (43%, unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men now favours the ALP 52.5% (up 3.5%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 3.5%).

Analysis by States

The ALP leads in Australia’s three largest States. NSW: ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%), Victoria: ALP (55%) cf. L-NP (45%) and Queensland: ALP (56.5%) cf. L-NP (43 .5%).

In Western Australia the ALP (52%) leads the L-NP (48%) only two weeks before Western Australia votes in a special half-Senate election on April 5. The ALP also leads narrowly in South Australia and leads in Tasmania after both States elected new State Governments during the surveying period.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 100 (up 5pts). Now 41.5% (up 3.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (down 1.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Also from The Australian, where putting lippy on the Lib’s pig is becoming an art form, Newspoll registered 52-48 in favour of Labor on a two-party preferred basis, with the Greens back up to 13%.

Houses and Holes

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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Comments

  1. Also from The Australian, where putting lippy on the Lib’s pig is becoming an art form

    Headline at The Oz reads: “Abbott support still strong: Newspoll”. LOL!

    • So strong that he’s currently polling well enough to come second in a two horse race 😛

  2. Sadly, much as I’d like to believe these numbers, Morgan polls have bugger all credibility with anyone.

      • As someone pointed out over at Pollbludger, the Greens vote across all polls has been rising gradually since the election and PUP has been slipping.

        Perhaps Abbott’s extreme anti-environment policies are backfiring? Certainly not being part of a minority government will do wonders for the Green vote. All they need now is a decent leader.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Love to see it dude but the greens are drowning in their own self interest and hypocrisy.

        Hell if they just stopped being a feeder for labour I’d probably vote green! But I remember the democrats and once bitten…

      • “Love to see it dude but the greens are drowning in their own self interest and hypocrisy.”

        Specifics?
        And who do you vote for again?

        Or are you one of these people who smugly throws rocks from the sidelines without anything constructive ti offer?

      • migtronixMEMBER

        And who the fuck are you Joneses? What do you do for humanity? I’d rather throw rocks at Goliath than shine it’s boots! Some of us don’t care about keeping up with Joneses, we want the Greens to do something about REAL environmental problems not bullshit ones like carbon tax. What have the greens achieved re great barrier reef?

      • mig, if you have someone better to vote for I’m all ears.

        You do know you can direct your preferences to whoever you like don’t you?

      • migtronixMEMBER

        @lorax you can but the party screws you on that! Only indies will do for me so I only vote senate.

      • You disappoint me Mig.
        Thought you were more intelligent (and better informed) than that.

        “What have the greens achieved re great barrier reef?”

        Well if you check their websites you’ll see the Greens have been very active on that issue. But what they can achieve in the Senate is limited if mugs like you prefer to vote for the Motoring Enthusiasts Party.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Your Green party worship disappoints me Jones! I’d rather have the lot of parliament bickering and achieving nothing than fucking it up worse.

  3. Polls come and polls go but the LNP have been hitting a lot of odd notes as they try to crank out some of the classic hits of 96-07.

    Without those early morning track suit clad ambles of Howard to demonstrate what comfortable and relaxed means as a lifestyle choice we have been getting a strong dose of Young Liberal campus snipe as they revel in taking to the fight to the groups that did such a splendid job of alienating the ALP from the centre ground.

    If the ALP are sensible they will learn from this and stand back and let the LNP elites do battle with the left elites (who the ALP forgot they only need be friendly with -not in love) and slip into the bemused middle crowd who are watching on and thinking ‘what a bunch of wankers’.

    Mr Shorten should check out the track suit specials at Lowes this week.

    He might feel silly wearing it to the Melbourne Club and getting spotted watching the footy in it but sometimes life is about making sacrifices.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      You’re Labor 2 party preference is out of line,
      Because tonight we’re gonna party like it’s 1999!

      • Just imagine MrShorten cutting the carpet at that party in a green and gold tracky covering a southern cross singlet and some faded green daks with saggy elastic.

        The crowd will go wild ‘Who let the dags out’

        Mean while out in the yard near the keg and veggie patch there is a rumble going on between the long hairs and the hard bodies in budgie smugglers.

  4. If true, this would make the new Senate election very interesting though I still think 3 Liberals, 2 Labor and 1 Green is the most likely result.

      • I’d prefer Bandt with Larissa as deputy, but I think pretty much anyone else would be better option than Christine Milne at the moment (except Lee Rhiannon).

      • Yeah, I’m a big fan of Ludlam as well – largely because he’s one of the very few Senators (if not the only one) who both understands digital issues and isn’t afraid of asking officials some difficult questions.

        The fact that Brandis clearly hates him also earns Ludlam some more respect from me.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        @AB: He doesn’t understand digital issues!! Remember when his mate dropped in for 30 seconds to spruik their pathetic housing “affordability” policy? That’s how well they “understand digital issues” not even enough to have a decent debate because “parliament was in session” – and what did you achieve that day in parliament other than a good meal Bandt??

      • Well in fact Adam Brandt, the Greens Deputy Leader did leave an open offer to be interviewed for the MB Podcast at some future date, which I think (hope) is still in the pipeline when the MB guys have time. Name one other Federal politician who has done as much?

        And perhaps I am in a minority but I tend to believe that the members we elect to govern us actually SHOULD pay attention to whats going on in the Chamber of Parliament while it is in session. Radical idea?

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Why should they? Have you ever paid attention to what those imbeciles are up to?

        Live your unicorns and fairies fantasy dude I’ll take real action on real things.

        Oh he “left the door open for an official interview”? Fq.Tht what about engaging with us plebs Jones? Don’t we count or is parliament so much more important than our views. Dweeb!

      • @migtronix – not sure how that relates to data retention, Internet filtering or the like. Also not sure how Bandt == Ludlam.

      • Now with the personal insults, Mig? tsk tsk.
        Keep it up.
        You are doing a great job winning hearts and minds.

        How much more rope would you like?

      • migtronixMEMBER

        I’m not a politician what do I care about “winning hearts and minds” ?!?!

        That’s whats wrong with you Jones always trying to keep up appearances.

        @AB Ludlam has done NOTHING about any of that — he ought to take the AFP to court over shit like this

        http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/03/australian-spy-agency-pushes-for-new-data-retention-scheme/

        is not defined in the TIA Act but is generally understood to refer to information about a communication that is not the content or substance of a communication. Data is increasingly understood as falling into two categories: subscriber data, which provides information about a party to a communication such as name or billing address; and traffic data, which relates to how a communication passes across a network, such as the location from which the communication was made.[7]

        http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2012-2013/DataRetention

        What a champ! Thanks Ludlam.

        @Joneses Dweeb is personal attack but not is limited if mugs like you? Interesting. But please feel free to cry to mommy earth

  5. But there won’t be an election for a coule of years and by then the government, having inflicted all the pain early, will be in vote winning mode.

    Polls don’t matter this early in the cycle for a government with a clear majority.