Fresh from Roy Morgan:
If a Federal Election were held today it would result in an ALP victory – two-party preferred support is ALP 53.5% (up 3% since the Morgan Poll of February 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) cf. L-NP 46.5% (down 3%) according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (March 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,903 Australian electors aged 18+.
The L-NP primary vote is 39.5% (down 1.5%) still ahead of the ALP primary vote at 37% (up 1.5%).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (up 1.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 4% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 7.5% (down 1%). Support for PUP is highest in Tasmania which has a State Election on Saturday (11.6%). In South Australia, which also has a State Election, support for PUP is only 3%.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (57%, up 3.5% since February 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (43%, down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, support amongst men slightly favours the L-NP 51% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 49% (up 1.5%).
Analysis by States
Analysing voting intention by State shows the L-NP’s strongest State is still Western Australia with the L-NP (54.5%) clearly ahead of the ALP (45.5%) and well placed to perform well at the half-Senate election to be held on the first Saturday in April in Western Australia.
The L-NP also leads in both South Australia: L-NP (52.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%) and Tasmania: L-NP (52.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%) Both South Australia and Tasmania face State elections on Saturday March 15, 2014. However, the ALP leads in Australia’s three largest States. NSW: ALP (55%) cf. L-NP (45%), Victoria: ALP (57%) cf. L-NP (43%) and Queensland: ALP (51.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%).
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 95 (up 2.5pts). Now 38% (up 0.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 43% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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