If a Federal Election were held today it would result in an ALP victory – two-party preferred support is ALP 53.5% (up 3% since the Morgan Poll of February 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) cf. L-NP 46.5% (down 3%) according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (March 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,903 Australian electors aged 18+.
The L-NP primary vote is 39.5% (down 1.5%) still ahead of the ALP primary vote at 37% (up 1.5%).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (up 1.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 4% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 7.5% (down 1%). Support for PUP is highest in Tasmania which has a State Election on Saturday (11.6%). In South Australia, which also has a State Election, support for PUP is only 3%.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (57%, up 3.5% since February 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (43%, down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, support amongst men slightly favours the L-NP 51% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 49% (up 1.5%).
Analysis by States
Analysing voting intention by State shows the L-NP’s strongest State is still Western Australia with the L-NP (54.5%) clearly ahead of the ALP (45.5%) and well placed to perform well at the half-Senate election to be held on the first Saturday in April in Western Australia.
The L-NP also leads in both South Australia: L-NP (52.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%) and Tasmania: L-NP (52.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%) Both South Australia and Tasmania face State elections on Saturday March 15, 2014. However, the ALP leads in Australia’s three largest States. NSW: ALP (55%) cf. L-NP (45%), Victoria: ALP (57%) cf. L-NP (43%) and Queensland: ALP (51.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%).
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 95 (up 2.5pts). Now 38% (up 0.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 43% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
