Consumers enjoy Christmas binge

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ScreenHunter_05 Jul. 26 10.23

By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released retail sales figures for the month of January, which registered a 1.2% seasonally-adjusted increase in sales over the month, which met economist’s expectations. Annual sales growth clocked in at a solid 6.2% – the highest rate of growth since late-2009:

ScreenHunter_1527 Mar. 06 11.39
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Monthly retail sales rose in six jurisdictions and fell in two:

ScreenHunter_1528 Mar. 06 11.42

The increase in retail sales was also broad-based across segments, will all six categories recording rises in January:

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ScreenHunter_1529 Mar. 06 11.46

You can see from the next chart that the pick-up in recent sales has been driven mostly by discretionary retail, where growth has accelerated from previously depressed levels:

ScreenHunter_1532 Mar. 06 12.04
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Overall, the pick-up in discretionary retail sales accords with yesterday’s national accounts release, which registered a pick-up in consumption spending and a sharp reduction in the household savings rate. Consumers have enjoyed a Christmas binge. If the current growth rate lasts through the next few months then it will be fair to conclude that consumer attitudes have shifted to a less conservative point-of-view, contrary to sentiment surveys.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

www.twitter.com/Leithvo

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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