Australian dollar triggers points for RBA jawbone

Thursday, 6 March 2014

From Annette Beacher at TD, here are the RBA jawbone trigger points based on analysis of RBA minutes since August:

$US0.80-85—is ‘preferable’ and a ‘fair deal’

$US0.85-88—doesn’t draw comment

$US0.89-90—the AUD is ‘at a high level’

$US0.91-95—the AUD is ‘uncomfortably high’

“Failure to comment is now a trigger to rally, a situation that is likely to be unwelcome at the central bank,” adds Beacher.

Perhaps but it brings us closer to macroprudential policy.

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.