Callam Pickering returns to a locked BS today to maintain the rage against the bubble he will not name:
Job security may be of increasing concern for many Australians, but you would never know it looking at investor activity. Has there ever been a greater divide between the outlook for prospective home buyers and investors?
…In such an environment, how long can this housing boom last? That is always difficult to pinpoint but it is disconcerting to note that owner-occupiers also appear to be becoming a little less optimistic. The number of loan approvals by existing home owners has slowed across most states in recent months, in sharp contrast to investor activity.
…What should be clear is that the current make-up of Australian lending is not conducive to sustainable house price growth. Investors are notoriously fickle and, if their optimism fades, then the market will turn and turn quickly.
Compounding matters is that Australian housing hasn’t exactly been a great investment in recent years. Sydney house prices, for example, have increased by 0.8 per cent over the past decade after accounting for inflation. Real prices have declined in Perth over the past seven years.
Even Melbourne, the best performing housing market since the onset of the global financial crisis, has offered only a modest return on investment since 2008.
How long can investors ignore the fact that Australian housing has not offered more than a short-term speculative profit in years? And when they do, what will happen?
The same thing that happened in 2003, Callam, when Sydney went “pop”. Only this time it will happen during a period when the economy can’t handle it. The question of when will be tackled in our next special report.
