Record China exports drives surprise trade surplus

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ScreenHunter_07 Nov. 26 16.13

By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released trade data for the month of December, with Australia recording a seasonally-adjusted trade surplus of $468 million. The result surprised analysts, which had expected a trade deficit of $200 million.

It was the 2nd monthly trade surplus in a row and followed the $83 million surplus recorded in November (revised from a deficit of $118 million) and the $417 million deficit recorded in October (revised up from $358 million). The next chart shows the monthly breakdown:

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ScreenHunter_1126 Feb. 06 12.27

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose $1,023m (4%) to $28,511m, whereas imports rose $638m (2%) to $28,042m, with increases across the major categories.

Australia’s biggest export commodity – iron ore (28% share) – rose by $1,063 million in December to a new record high, as did Australia’s second and third biggest exports – coal (15%) and natural gas (6% share) – which rose by $540 million and $273 million respectively over the month. By contrast, Australia’s fourth biggest export commodities – gold (3% share) – fell by $396 million (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_1128 Feb. 06 12.45

Exports to China surged by $975 million (to $9,597 million) to a new record high, with its share of total exports at 37%. Exports to the second biggest market – Japan (18% share) – rose by $647 million, as did exports to Korea (7% share) and India (3% share) – Australia’s third and fourth biggest markets – which rose by $66 million and $39 million respectively (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_1129 Feb. 06 12.53
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As always, Western Australia dominated the nation’s exports. It alone accounted for 48% of Australia’s merchandise exports in December, with its exports also rising by 16% over the month. Exports from Queensland also rose by 12% (see below chart).

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Again, Western Australia continues to be the state driving the nation’s trade balance, although Queensland and South Australia are also marginally in the black. By contrast, Victoria and New South Wales remain heavily in deficit:

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Finally, Australia’s services trade balance deteriorated marginally in December (-$82 million), with net tourism exports also recording a small fall (-$9 million):

ScreenHunter_1132 Feb. 06 13.03
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unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

www.twitter.com/Leithvo

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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