Pulling the Shorten straw backfiring?

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar runs riot on BoJo win

imgres

From The Australian, Newspoll suggest we don’t like the Libs but we really don’t like Bill Shorten:

BILL Shorten’s personal standing has slumped and Labor’s primary vote has fallen during a Christmas parliamentary break dominated by corporate closures, job losses, union corruption and controversy over the Coalition’s handling of industry aid and asylum-seekers.

For the first time since mid-October, voter satisfaction with the Opposition Leader and his party has stopped rising and has reversed, with satisfaction with Mr Shorten down 9 percentage points last weekend to 35 per cent as Labor’s primary vote dropped three points to 35 per cent.

During the same period, support for Tony Abbott and the Coalition, which fell drastically at the end of the post-election honeymoon between October and December, has been steady.

According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted on the weekend exclusively for The Australian, primary vote support for the Coalition is 41 per cent and for Labor is 35 per cent, down from 38 per cent in December.

With the Greens’ primary vote up from 9 per cent to 12 per cent since early December, the two-party-preferred result, based on preference flows at the 2013 election, favour Labor 51 per cent to 49 per cent compared with 52 per cent-48 per cent before Christmas.

I’m not surprised. Our Bill has presented a weak-kneed persona with little in terms of a substantial framework to understand Australia’s current challenges. As a card carrying faceless union man with no obvious convictions he’s not viable as an alternative even if the Libs are on the nose.

David Llewellyn-Smith

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

    • I like her and think she is a standout for the leadership… but due to my inattention I don’t know her ideology. Does she have the framework behind her obvious qualities?

    • You have to be kidding.

      She would just be a federal Kristina Keneally.
      A pretty face to stick out front and detract from the rot behind the scenes.

      Besides she is from the left faction of the ALP and hell would need to freeze over before a left winger would become leader.

    • Tanya is useless. She was a hopeless Housing Minister, she did a lot pf posturing prior to the 2007 election and then did basically nothing in her portfolio except maintain the status quo.

      • Not this time Smithy. Strident, insincere, ambitious beyond ability. Reminds one of another former leader, also a product of ALP affirmative action promotion.

      • Concur with both Plibersek is a disaster — have no idea what qualities some are alluding to every interview I’ve seen her in – even RN when she has room to wander – I see not intellectual activity, brain dead.

        As for minebot, anyone else notice a remarkable transformation in the commentary? Its conciliatory, ironic without the caustic after taste, and even dare I say genuflective? Certainly come a long way from Eliza[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA]

        Full Disclosure: I prefer 3d1ks comments to most…

      • Strident, insincere, ambitious beyond ability.

        You’re talking about Tony Abbot, right ? Or maybe Julie Bishop ?

    • Shorten lost me the moment he signed up for the “Big Australia” elitist agenda.

      Pliberseks anti-Israeli inclinations bother me, too.

      Albo by a country mile.

      • Pliberseks anti-Israeli inclinations bother me, too.

        Well IMHO anyone who HASN’T an Anti Israel inclination must be brain dead or totally ignorant of what the Israeli Govt has been doing for the past 64 + years!

        And — there’s NO excuse for being totally Ignorant

        The ABC had an eye opening 4 Corners on Monday night – very surprising indeed that it even got to air — but that’s another story.
        Watch it on ABC i View http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/81460405

        I’m NOT saying all Jews are bad news -obviously not -as over 50% would like to share land with the Palestinians. Its their mongrel Zionist leadership that have caused all the bloodshed & horror across the whole Middle East. Say anything non complimentary about Jews & they’ll say you’re anti-Semitic & call up the holocaust !

        Well it’s about time that BS ended & we all called like it is.

      • Easy to be critical when you have the luxury of NOT living in a country surrounded and out numbered 20-1 by crazies intent on nothing but your destruction.

        Israel has my total respect.

  1. As the culprit who backstabed and dethrone 2 sitting PM, Shorten knows how to protect his own back!! The recent ‘reform’ to the ALP means it’ll be virtually impossible for any challenger to remove him.

  2. General Disarray

    Too much baggage with Shorten. History says the first opposition leader after an election loss doesn’t tend to stick around. It’s somewhat fitting the Shorten is going to be that leader.

    Albo or Tanya would be the go to option, both seem to at least have some principles. But let Shorten hang around a while longer and get some dirty work out of the way.

  3. The ALP need to get their heads around the fundamental economic issues and that will give them plenty to run with.

    Shorten is not convincing on economics but with someone solid behind him he could pull off a double act like Hawke-Keating.

    Problem is that I haven’t seen much evidence that anyone in shadow cabinet gets it.

    So it is a bit of wash at the moment govt v opposition.

    • He’s my local member. When we tried to figure out what he does my partner pointed out that his role seems to be that of a professional school-child hand-shaker.

      • That’s the role of every back-bencher, isn’t it? Shake hands with kids, put on a hi-vis vest occasionally and nod with a stern expression in the background of doorstop interviews.

  4. Has anybody read Hearts and Minds? Bowen gets it and is playing a long game imo.

    Clearly understands the boom, the debt and the housing. He’s pals wiith keating too you know?

  5. Most governments don’t survive the coming on of a recession and high unemployment. unless it is in the first 0 to 12 months and is the oether side’s fault.

    Abbott will face an uphill battle if the recession and unemployment, and possibly nominal house price falls, hit 12 months before the nect fedeal election.

      • Don’t forget their cheerleaders at The Australian and the unknown quantity that is the Royal Commission into Union Corruption.
        We’ll also need a new war soon, either a hot one (Syria?) or an abstract one – War on Deflation?

  6. Labor need not worry about Bill’s obvious shortcomings. There is a veritable ocean of unmitigated talent to to fill his leadership shoes: Conroy, Fitzgibbon, Feeney, Carr, Ludwig. And we could also recycle Crean, Arbib, Farrell etc in a “safie”. Happy is the land…

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      and dont forget Richard Marles! Now there is talent……

      The good voters of Corio – those with an eye on the departure of Ford, Shell and Alcoa in the next couple of years – should find it very reassuring that the idiot son of the latte set is on their side.

  7. Chris Bowen by a country mile, but he is too smart to take it yet. He is articulate, might lack a bit in the charisma stakes, but is on the money in his understanding of economic issues. Just listen to any of his interviews and he runs rings around most others in articulating policy.

    • Bowen is interesting. Smart alas not well endowed with physical presence and a disturbing preparedness to disassociate from the ALP in the recent election . Might find he is a better performer in power (and good grief he had to wait for Swansong to move along) than in opposition where he often comes across petulant and sniping. One for the ALP to reengineer.

      Husic and Wong for me.