Previewing ABS capex

From Westpac comes a neat preview of tomorrow’s big capex release:

2013/14: Estimate 5 – Scenarios
Here we present some scenarios for Est 5 of capex plans for 2013/14.
This is based upon applying the 3yr RR to mining, and the 10yr RR to services and the 10yr RR to manufacturing.
Scenario 1, 2013/14: – implied growth same as Est 4 (i.e. –2%)

Est 5 of $167bn.
Implies a final outcome of $172bn, –2% on 2012/13
Mining, –4%; services, +4%; manufacturing, –10%.
Scenario 2, 2013/14: – a softer result

Est 5 of $160bn.
Implies final outcome of $151bn, –6% on 2012/13
Mining, –8%; services, flat; manufacturing, –14%.
Scenario 3, 2013/14: – a more positive result

Est 5 of $174bn.
Implies final outcome of $164bn, +2% on 2012/13
Mining, flat; services, +8%; manufacturing, –6%;

2014/15: Estimate 1
The initial estimate of capex plans for 2014/15 will be released in this update. We caution that the reliability of estimates 1 & 2 for any given year are typically significantly less than estimates 3 through to 6, ahead of the final outcome, estimate 7. The strength or otherwise of Est 1 will depend upon plans for 2013/14, hence our preference not to present various scenarios for 2014/15.

Full report here.