Markets bet taper taper as US housing slows

In the ongoing drama that is taper, today’s chapter goes to the doves. US data was again weak. The Case Shiller House Price Index (chart from Calculated Risk):

Data through December 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that National home prices closed the year of 2013 up 11.3%. This represents a slight improvement over last quarter’s annual rate of 11.2%. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the National Index declined 0.3%.

In December, the 10-City Composite remained relatively unchanged while the 20-City Composite showed its second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Year-over-year, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 13.6% and 13.4%, approximately 30 basis points lower than their November rates. Chicago showed its highest year-over-year return since December 1988. Dallas set a new peak and posted its largest annual gain since its inception in 2000. Denver declined 0.1% and is now 0.7% below its all-time index level high set in September 2013.

“The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, gains are slowing from month-to-month and the strongest part of the recovery in home values may be over. Year-over-year values for the two monthly Composites weakened and the quarterly National Index barely improved. The seasonally adjusted data also exhibit some softness and loss of momentum.

…“Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing. Existing home sales fell 5.1% in January from December to the slowest pace in over a year. Permits for new residential construction and housing starts were both down and below expectations. Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability. Mortgage default rates, as shown by the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Index, are back to their pre-crisis levels but bank lending standards remain strict.”

Prices are slowing and by mid year look likely to be in the mid or low single digit range. Conference Board Consumer Confidence also failed to fire coming in at 78.1 from January’s downward-revised 79.4 reading. consensus was for 80.0 from January’s initially-reported 80.7 reading. Also weak and the pervasive weather excuse was the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:

Manufacturing in the Fifth District slowed, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders declined. Hiring flattened, while the average workweek shortened and average wage growth rose.

…The composite index of manufacturing dipped to a reading of −6 following last month’s reading of 12. The index for shipments fell 20 points, ending at −6, and the index for new orders dropped 23 points, finishing at a reading of −9. The index for the number of employees shed six points, settling at 0. As a result of bad weather a few survey participants reported that manufacturing facilities experienced downtime in February, with some reductions in shipments.

The end result was listless stocks with no new high, a marginally weaker US dollar, the Aussie going sideways but gold shifted above its Fibo retracement at 1443:

The big dovish move was in bonds which were strongly bid and yields fell 1.5% to 2.7% and 3.66% on the 10 year and 30 year respectively. It’s another short head to the taper taper.