Labor jumps in polls (or does it?)

From Newspoll today:

LABOR’S support is the highest it has been since Kevin Rudd was removed as prime minister in 2010, as tough budget talk on Medicare co-payments and lifting the retirement age seems to have pushed the Coalition and Tony Abbott to their worst position since the election.

The ALP’s primary vote support of 39 per cent – up four percentage points – has put Labor ahead in two-party-preferred terms, 54-46, a reversal of the result at the September election.

Bill Shorten has also drawn virtually equal to Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister, on 37 per cent to Mr Abbott’s 38 per cent.

Voter satisfaction with both leaders is the worst it has been since the election, with Mr Abbott’s dissatisfaction jumping seven percentage points to a high of 52 per cent and dissatisfaction with Mr Shorten as Opposition Leader rising four points to a high of 39 per cent.

Meanwhile, Roy Morgan sees the opposite:

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If an election were held now it would be too close to call – two-party preferred support is ALP 50.5% (down 1.5% since the Morgan Poll of February 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 1.5%) according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-modeMorgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (February 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,000 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 41% (up 0.5%) clearly ahead of the ALP primary vote at 35.5% (down 1.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (unchanged), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 4.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/Others is 8.5% (up 1%). Support for PUP is clearly highest in Queensland (9.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (53.5%, down 1% since February 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (46.5%, up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, support amongst men still favours the L-NP 52.5% (up 2%) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 2%).

Analysis by States

Analysing voting intention by State shows the L-NP’s strongest State is still Western Australia with the L-NP (55%) clearly ahead of the ALP (45%) and well placed to perform well at the half-Senate election due in Western Australia.

The L-NP also leads in NSW: L-NP (52.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%), while the ALP leads in the four other States. Victoria: ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%); Queensland: ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%); South Australia: ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5%) and Tasmania: ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%). Both South Australia and Tasmania face State elections on Saturday March 15, 2014.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 92.5 (down 11.5pts).This is the lowest Government Confidence has been since June 2013 – just before Julia Gillard was replaced as Prime Minister by Kevin Rudd. Now 37.5% (down 5.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 45% (up 6%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

If you can make head or tail of that you’re a better analyst than I am!

Houses and Holes

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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Comments

  1. Our country is making a joke out of democracy. When the polls showed the Coalition ahead it was front page of every paper.

    The reverse and it is hidden away as a footnote somewhere. Including in the supposedly left biasex media.

    Now I’m not a die hard Labor supporter. Any party of any persuasion with a good policy portfolio will get my vote.

    But the extent of the current government’s dishonesty and their support from the media is shocking. Whatever happened to the RBA corruption scandal for example?

    Can’t make heads or tails of it eh HnH?

    Yet when a poll favours the Coalition you are quick to come up with an explanation such as “people must like cuts”. Really? What about applying good public policy principles to their 3 core economic policies. Cut 2 efficient taxez and distribute wealth back to the wealthy.

    Nope can’t see what’s going on here!

      • Ok fair enough.

        The polls are supposed to have a narrow conference margin I thought.

        The fact that they’re this far apart does question their reliability.

      • Morgan i think is the most reliable since it takes into the sample those people who dont have land line telephones, a growing percentage of young households.

  2. Newspoll is definitely against the recent trend. Pollbludger is always a worthwhile read for poll analysis:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/24/newspoll-54-46-to-labor/

    The best bit about a strong Newspoll for Labor is watching Shanahan try to spin the result for the Coalition. This time he’s blaming it on Manus island and “two weeks of dire warnings from Mr Abbott, Joe Hockey and Health Minister Peter Dutton of the need for deep budget cuts, and discussion of the possibility of raising the retirement age beyond 67 and imposing a means-tested $6 co-payment for visits to the GP under Medicare”.

    • BTW, the one thing that all the polls agree on is rising dissatisfaction with Shorten’s performance.

      Time for Tanya, or Penny, or both!

      • Tassie TomMEMBER

        Or Albo.

        One thing learned from the Gillard experiment is that too many Australians do not like having a woman in charge.

        It is sad for the women who deserve the top job, but they won’t get the votes.

        Having said that, I don’t think Shorten will either.

      • Malcolm vs Penny, now that would be a good contest.

        Why should we put up with crap politicians when there are some good ones around?

  3. Wow the comments got partisan very quickly.

    Is it possible that given no fed election is due for a while all the pollsters have reduced their sample size, hence the variation?

    Alternatively both are rogue.

  4. The polls are bunk.
    The electorate is like an amoeba, tax them and the effect is like a hot needle, the animal moves away. Pour in the sugar, it loves you…
    Why don’t we go all the way with this. Set up a device in everyone’s home so, as the minister of the moment speaks, the polls can be displayed to him or her on a continuous basis. This allows the minister to change course in mid stride during policy statements eg: “as to our policy on tax increases, we will be implementing them (watch the graph..).but NOT in the foreseeable future (phew! Just in time)”
    The beauty of it is, the usual herd of elephants which will produce a violent spike in the traveling graph: Negative gearing, Super reform etc can be safely ignored by fair and open agreement on both sides.
    Pathetic.

      • I grant to all that “live” polling isn’t any idea of mine. It’s the pernicious effect on politics of such constant, minute by minute feedback that pisses me off. Consider just the past few days:
        a) Christine Milne: The immigration minister should resign because he received misinformation?. What should he have done Christine? Tell everyone “I have information but it might be incorrect so I can’t say anything” or “The violence happened outside the camp but could still have happened inside it”. The Manus Island facility was set up by Labor. Idiot.

        b) The liberals, rapidly going the same way with their attempt to tar an entire party with some forced apology over the actions of our good man Mr Thompson. Just sets up the other side so the next Lib they catch will require a circus traveling the other way.

        A democracy reduced to impotence by a generation of spineless lizards watching only the moving graph.

    • For your scheme to work, you have to force people to listen to politicians. I believe that most of those being polled pays very little attention to politics.

      Politicians sees ‘misleading parliament’ as an offense, where as ‘misleading the public’ is perfectly ok. The real question should be : why does both ALP and LNP support paying over 1 billion dollars to a private company for keeping people locked up? Doesn’t it just reeks of corruption?