From Newspoll today:
LABOR’S support is the highest it has been since Kevin Rudd was removed as prime minister in 2010, as tough budget talk on Medicare co-payments and lifting the retirement age seems to have pushed the Coalition and Tony Abbott to their worst position since the election.
The ALP’s primary vote support of 39 per cent – up four percentage points – has put Labor ahead in two-party-preferred terms, 54-46, a reversal of the result at the September election.
Bill Shorten has also drawn virtually equal to Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister, on 37 per cent to Mr Abbott’s 38 per cent.
Voter satisfaction with both leaders is the worst it has been since the election, with Mr Abbott’s dissatisfaction jumping seven percentage points to a high of 52 per cent and dissatisfaction with Mr Shorten as Opposition Leader rising four points to a high of 39 per cent.
Meanwhile, Roy Morgan sees the opposite:
If an election were held now it would be too close to call – two-party preferred support is ALP 50.5% (down 1.5% since the Morgan Poll of February 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 1.5%) according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-modeMorgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (February 15/16 & 22/23, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,000 Australian electors aged 18+.
The L-NP primary vote is 41% (up 0.5%) clearly ahead of the ALP primary vote at 35.5% (down 1.5%).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (unchanged), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 4.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/Others is 8.5% (up 1%). Support for PUP is clearly highest in Queensland (9.5%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is still strongest amongst women with the ALP (53.5%, down 1% since February 1/2 & 8/9, 2014) well ahead of the L-NP (46.5%, up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, support amongst men still favours the L-NP 52.5% (up 2%) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 2%).
Analysis by States
Analysing voting intention by State shows the L-NP’s strongest State is still Western Australia with the L-NP (55%) clearly ahead of the ALP (45%) and well placed to perform well at the half-Senate election due in Western Australia.
The L-NP also leads in NSW: L-NP (52.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%), while the ALP leads in the four other States. Victoria: ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%); Queensland: ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%); South Australia: ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5%) and Tasmania: ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%). Both South Australia and Tasmania face State elections on Saturday March 15, 2014.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 92.5 (down 11.5pts).This is the lowest Government Confidence has been since June 2013 – just before Julia Gillard was replaced as Prime Minister by Kevin Rudd. Now 37.5% (down 5.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 45% (up 6%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
If you can make head or tail of that you’re a better analyst than I am!
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.