Investors still hog wild in housing finance

Advertisement
ScreenHunter_1174 Feb. 11 11.25

By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released housing finance data for the month of December, which registered a seasonally-adjusted 1.9% fall in the number of owner-occupied finance commitments over the month:

ScreenHunter_1175 Feb. 11 11.30

The number of owner-occupied housing finance commitments excluding refinancings registered a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% fall over the month to be tracking 8% above the five-year moving average level. The number of commitments were also up 14.8% on December 2012 (see next chart).

Advertisement
ScreenHunter_1176 Feb. 11 11.41

The average loan size rose 0.6% over the month and was up 4.5% over the year. The below charts show the series on a 3-month moving average basis (in order to smooth volatility). Note the recent spike in average loan size after falling since the beginning of last year.

ScreenHunter_1177 Feb. 11 11.44
Advertisement
ScreenHunter_1178 Feb. 11 11.45

First home buyer (FHB) commitments fell by a non-seasonally adjusted 3.1% in December and represented just 12.7% of total owner-occupied commitments. However, they were up by 2% over the year (see below charts).

ScreenHunter_1179 Feb. 11 11.48
Advertisement
ScreenHunter_1180 Feb. 11 11.49

Finally, if you’re wondering what’s primarily driving house price at the moment, look no further. While the ABS only provides the value of investor finance commitments, these were up by another 2.9% in December, 41% over the year, and hit the highest level on record (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_1181 Feb. 11 11.50
Advertisement

[email protected]

www.twitter.com/leithvo

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.