Catering and retail sales during the 2014 Chinese New Year (CNY) golden week grew by 13.3% compared to that of 2013, according to the Ministry of Commerce. This is the lowest growth rate seen since data became available to the public in 2007.
● This time series is different from the usual monthly retail sales surveyed by the NBS. We should not take the face value of this data to project monthly retail sales, but this is the first data point for us to get a sense about holiday sales.
● The Ministry of Commerce’s statement also reports statistical evidence on the slump of high-end consumption. Sample superstores in Fuzhou reported a 70% contraction in high-end gift and wine sales. Similar contractions were reported in cities in vmiddle and northern China too.
● The slowing sales during the Chinese New Year provides evidence to support our view that consumption was weak, by Chinese standards, during the most celebrated holiday season in China.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
