The Roy Morgan-ANZ weekly consumer confidence measure has fallen sharply again, now below its long run average:
Consumer confidence fell a further 1.6% last week (ending 23 February) to 110.4. Confidence has dipped below its long-run average to sit around levels seen 18 months ago. Most subindices fell or were unchanged last week except for ‘best time to buy a household item’ which rose very modestly.
Despite this, the lift in consumer confidence for much of the past 18 months suggests consumer spending will improve this year. We forecast household consumption to increase by 2.4% this year, strengthening to growth of around 3.2% in 2015.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
