SA: sucked down the Budget black hole

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By Leith van Onselen

The AFR has reported today that the South Australian Budget has deteriorated, with the deficit widening significantly over the past two months:

A sudden deterioration in South Australia’s budget by $380 million in less than two months has reinforced economic management as the top issue at the state’s March 15 election…

Among the new figures, the government’s projected budget deficit for 2013-14 has worsened by $60 million to $1.015 billion, from $955 million previously. Mr Weatherill is also the state’s Treasurer.

The projected deficit for 2014-15 has risen by $63 million to $574 million, while projected surpluses in 2015-16 and 2016-17 have been shaved by $110 million and $147 million…

A quick glance at the labour force figures for South Australia shows that the economy is indeed in a bog.

Full-time jobs have tanked, declining by over 2% in the year to December 2013:

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Meanwhile, South Australia’s unemployment rate has edged up to 6.7% – the highest level since September 2002:

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The growth prospects for the South Australian economy have also worsened materially after General Motors Holden decided to stop making cars in Australia from 2017. According to Torrens University’s Barry Burgman, the loss of Holden’s production capacity could lead to A$1.24 billion of lost GSP the economic activity, 13,200 jobs (1.6% of total employment), and around $72 million per year of lost state taxes.

Little wonder, then, that South Australia’s premier and treasurer, Jay Weatherill, has called on the Federal Government to provide the state with $330 million of assistance to deal with the economic and social impact of Holden’s departure. With BHP Billiton also shelving its planned $30 billion expansion of the Olympic Dam mine in the state’s far north in late 2012, there’s not a lot of emerging growth drivers for the South Australian economy.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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