Roy Morgan Research (RMR) last night released its weekly consumer confidence index, which registered a second consecutive rise to start the year off in a positive way.
Over the week ended 11-12 January, the RMR index rose by 1.1 points to 117.5, driven mainly by respondents having more confidence about their own personal financial situation (see next chart).
The index is now up 5.7 points (5.1%) from the trough reached in the final week of December.
According to Gary Morgan:
“Roy Morgan weekly Consumer Confidence has increased for the second straight week to 117.5 (up 1.1pts) as Australians return to work. Consumer Confidence is traditionally at its highest in January (A 39-year average of 112.5) – significantly higher than the long-run December average of 107.8.
“Driving this week’s increase is increased confidence about people’s personal financial situations compared to a year ago with 33% (up 4%) of Australians saying they are ‘better off financially’ than this time last year – the highest since October 26/27, 2013.
“Looking at Consumer Confidence by age group shows that young adults are the most confident entering 2014: 25-34yr olds (126.8, down 0.4pts in a week) are ahead of 18-24yr olds (122.0, up 7.1pts) and 35-49yr olds (121.0, up 3.9pts). The lowest Consumer Confidence is among those of school age, 14-17yr olds (115.9, up 0.9pts) and older Australians aged 50-64 (110.4, down 1.1pts) and 65+ (109.9, down 2.3pts).”
Here’s how the RMR consumer confidence index is now tracking against the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index, whose most recent reading for December registered a sharp fall:
Given the past correlations, we should expect the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index to record an increase when January’s figures are released.
