Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released its weekly consumer confidence index, which is basically unchanged.
Over the week ended 25-26 January, the RMR index rose by 0.1 points to 116.4 to be up 4.6 points (4%) from the trough reached in the final week of December, but 5.3pts (4.4%) lower than a year ago (see next chart).
According to Gary Morgan:
“Roy Morgan weekly Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged at 116.4 (up 0.1pts) this week with little change across the five Consumer Confidence indicators. Most notably, now 52% (down 2%) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items – the lowest this indicator has been in 2014 and a week before the RBA has its first interest rates setting meeting for the year.
“Although Consumer Confidence has been fairly consistent in January, today’s falls on the All Ordinaries Index – now at just above 5,200 means the All Ordinaries Index has fallen approximately 3% since closing at 5,369 on the first trading day of 2014. In addition to the share-market falls, the Australian Dollar is now trading at a 3 ½ year low under 88 US cents. Both of these factors are likely to impact negatively on Consumer Confidence in the weeks ahead if these falls are sustained.
“Next week’s RBA meeting is the first chance for RBA Governor Glenn Stevens to signal the RBA’s support for the Australian economy this year by cutting interest rates, while the resumption of Federal Parliament a week later gives the Abbott Government the chance to present badly needed reforms to increase productivity and labour market flexibility in the Australian economy.”
Here’s how the RMR consumer confidence index is now tracking against the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index, whose most recent reading for January registered a fall:
