Chinese data hints at more slowing

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China’s quarterly and December data dump is out and it’s further confirmation that the behemoth is slowing. Annual GDP came in slightly ahead of expectations at 7.7% for the year through December:

China GDP

This is the lowest annual pace of growth since 1999. Quarterly growth was at 1.8% versus 2% expected.

The December monthly data shows more slowing. Industrial production fell to 9.7% from 10% previously and slightly below expected:

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China ip

Fixed asset investment growth fell to a post GFC low of 19.6% from 19.9% in November, missing consensus by 2bps:

China FAI
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Retail sales growth fell one point to 13.6%:

China retail

The dollar bounced to 88 cents on the news but I do not expect that to last. There is nothing here to prevent ongoing iron ore weakness nor concerns about further Chinese slowing.

And to finish, here are the figures for new yuan lending for December released late last week:

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China lending

Solid enough within a declining trend but shadow banking ain’t going away at all:

china shadow
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Expect more tightening.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.