Weekly RP data Australian house price update

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By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 12 December 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, rose by 0.38%. It was the second consecutive increase (see next chart).

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Values rose in all major capitals (see next chart).

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Values are up 0.37% so far in December, with three major capitals recording rises and two falls (see next chart).

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Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 9.15% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

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The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney, and to a lesser extent Melbourne and Perth (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_720 Dec. 13 07.47
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Values are up 2.9% since the 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney, with Perth values also up and all of the other major markets still in negative territory (see next chart).

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However, major capital home values have now gained 11.2% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

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Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a very short timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.