Weekly RP Data Australian house price report

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ScreenHunter_02 Feb. 13 11.55

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 5 December 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, rose by 0.38%. It was the first increase in three weeks (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_595 Dec. 06 08.28

Values rose in three major capitals and fell in two (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_594 Dec. 06 08.27

Values are up 0.37% so far in December, with three major capitals recording rises and two falls (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_596 Dec. 06 08.29
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Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 8.76% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_597 Dec. 06 08.30

Over the past 12 months, values have also risen by 8.76% at the 5-city level, again with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_598 Dec. 06 08.31

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney, and to a lesser extent Melbourne and Perth (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_599 Dec. 06 08.32
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Values are up 2.2% since the 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney, with Perth values also up and all of the other major markets still in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_600 Dec. 06 08.33

However, major capital home values have now gained 10.8% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_601 Dec. 06 08.34

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a very short timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.