Roy Morgan: Women desert Abbott in droves

Let me reiterate that I would not be posting polls at this stage of the electoral cycle were it not for the likelihood of a rerun in WA for the Senate. Having said that, it appears Tony Abbott’s “women problem” is back with a vengeance:

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On a two-party preferred basis the ALP is 52.5%, up 1% since the Morgan Poll of November 30/ December 1, 2013. L-NP support is 47.5%, down 1%. If an election were held now the result would be an ALP victory according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (December 7/8 & 14/15, 2013) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,879 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 40.5% (down 1%) just ahead of the ALP primary vote at 38.5% (unchanged).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10% (up 1.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 3.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/Others is 7.5% (down 0.5%). Support for PUP is still clearly highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (5.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows this week’s rise in support for the ALP has come from women with the ALP (58%, up 4% since November 30/ December 1, 2013) now well ahead of the L-NP (42%, down 4%) amongst women on a two party preferred basis. However, support amongst men for the two major parties is little changed with men still favouring the L-NP 53% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 47% (down 1.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 103.5 (down 9.5pts since November 30/ December 1, 2013) and now at its lowest point since the recent Federal Election. Now 42% (down 6%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38.5% (up 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (52.5%, up 1% over the past two weeks) has increased its lead over the L-NP (47.5%, down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis after Holden’s decision to cease manufacturing in Australia in 2017 was announced last week. Last week also saw the Abbott Government’s successful High Court challenge to the ACT’s same-sex marriage laws which were struck down by the High Court as inconsistent with the Federal marriage legislation.

“It is important to note that the rise in ALP support has come entirely from women with women now heavily favouring the ALP (58%, up 4%) over the L-NP (42%, down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis however men still favour the L-NP (53%, up 1.5%) over the ALP (47%, down 1.5%).

“Worryingly for the Abbott Government, which reached 100 days in office today, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has ‘crashed’ to 103.5pts (down 9.5pts) and is now at its lowest since the Coalition won the recent Federal Election. Treasurer Joe Hockey is due to deliver the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) tomorrow which is believed to contain further bad news about the state of the Federal Budget. The Government will hope that the bad news of the last few weeks will be long forgotten when Parliament resumes in mid-February 2014.”

Doubling down on the paid parental leave extravaganza anyone?

Comments

  1. A Double Dissolution poll has of happening as England has of saving the Ashes so it’s what is happening in the West that will be worth watching.

    Therefore I hope the pollsters come out with some WA only numbers soon.

  2. I’m waiting for Joe Hockey to claim today that the Paid Parental Scheme is Labor’s fault as well!!

    • Of course it’s Labor’s fault. If Labor was doing worse in the polls the Liberals wouldn’t have had to offer the PPL.

  3. Agree with Ronin and TheJoneses.
    Also reiterate that this government was mainly voted in to cut the debt down…if they don’t have the strength of character to cut deeply into middle class welfare (and not go ahead with Paid Parental Scheme) they will not get a second term.

    Maybe flawse will take over in 2016.

    • Agreed. They were elected to be fiscally responsible, they were elected to be tough, but instead they’ve been handing out money to the RBA, raising the debt ceiling, spending billions on Gonski, cutting taxes, repealing Labor’s FBT changes, while keeping the stupid PPL scheme.

      Have they made one tough decision in the first 100 days?

      • Yes they made the oh so tough decision to leave fringe benefits intact. This lot are about as conservative as the last lot was pro working class (because the working class, or any, find it so easy to afford dwellings – an old mainstay of pro labour politics – houses and an honest days pay if I recall correctly from the dusty textbooks)!

        If there wasn’t such a danger with demagogy in our political environment – owned as it is by media and mining interests – I’d advocate a 3rd party, but I know well enough that 3rd party would be completely and utterly controlled. So I resign myself to donkey votes in the vain hope that one day 20% of the electorate does the same and the whole stupid “election” is considered null and void and throws up the possibility of real candidates (looking at you flawse) with real conservative and real pro labour values coming to the fore.

      • Good to hear from you Lorax…I’ve been worried about you all week…worried that I may have made too big a fuss about things, even grandstanding a bit.

        Talk about grandstanding… No they haven’t made any tough decisions and they’re starting to look a bit amateurish.
        I hope for my children’s sake they get up and have a go instead of playing the blame game.

        I’ve not been retired long but I’d be happy to have the 15% tax restored to super pensions as long as they get rid of middle class welfare.

    • Since this is an economics blog, shouldn’t someone take issue with this assertion:

      “Also reiterate that this government was mainly voted in to cut the debt down”

      What friggin’ debt? The massive private debt? Because there’s bugger all public debt to write home about.

      • Perception is reality. The coalition government (then the opposition) created the perceived reality of a debt problem. Now they own the election-commitment to solve it.

        They seem to be doing the reverse, but they are trapped – they cannot say that it isn’t a problem (otherwise they were liars and economic vandals previously), so they’re going with their proven strategy of blaming labor. For everything. I think the poll figures are a reflection that the voting populace as a whole if (finally) waking up to that sleight of hand trick.

  4. It’s incredible that the split is still so close to 50/50.

    The Hockey’s budget stinks like the inside of a shit smugglers rucksack..

    Abbott being fundimentaly unpalatable for all women kind isn’t a revelation.

  5. Peta is already working on how to reduce the number of women enrolled for the next Fed election – along with youth, gays, recent new citizens, etc.

  6. Those who know Shorten know he’ll be only too happy to take credit for the gender drift 😉

    Let’s see if Stott Despoja’s new role influences.

    • Oh that’s right. By “those who now Shorten” it should be clarified that you’re referring to your fellow regular readers of The Pickering Post.

      • Settle petal, from The Power Index

        ”Like Bill Clinton, he knows how to make people feel special, listened to, noticed. And like both of these powerful men, he has an eye for the ladies. He dated and lived with the Minister for Health and Ageing, Nicola Roxon, before marrying his first wife Debbie Beale. He left Beale in 2008 for Chloe Bryce, the Governor-General Quentin Bryce’s married daughter.”

        Not a rumour to be seen…

        http://m.thepowerindex.com.au/political-fixers/bill-shorten

      • Politics is showbiz for ugly people, and it attracts the ugliest of supporters. Why do you people keep mentioning Pickering Post and blaming 3d1k when he/she had, as far as I’m aware, never mentioned it?
        And I’m not sticking up for 3k, he/she is quite capable without my help, I’m just disturbed that no one can point out the kind of scum that inhabits the ALP without being branded a Liberal die hard!

      • General Disarray

        Jesus!

        The guy has been married before and had a few girlfriends so that somehow means “he’ll be only too happy to take credit for the gender drift”

        FFS. Wake up to yourselves.

      • GA: Wake up to yourself man, that guy is a piece of garbage opportunists not unlike the other c*ckheads in there but more strategic (hence how he got where he is).

        I wouldn’t put anything past that guy and anyone who’s ever looked into Bill Clinton’s background knows what a deviate miscreant he really is.

      • General Disarray

        Sigh… I don’t even like Shorten but what someone does in the bedroom with another consenting adult is their own business.

        Leave this sowing circle rubbish where it belongs.

      • Come on mig, Clinton left the US economy in better shape than it had been for twenty years before, and the thirteen years since.

        For that, as far as I am concerned, he can prance around Times Square in the nude smoking dope, and he would still be far more worthy of his position than any buttoned up church goer before or since who have led their country to economic ruin.

      • Emess : I could care less if he jerks on a dress with joint up his arse blowing rings from his sphincter. The man is a rapist! He raped women at Oxford long before he ever got to Arkansas let alone Washington ! His disgusting.

        As for leaving the economy better, you mean the guy who gave is LTCM disaster, the dot com bubble and crash, Rubins AND the idiot who missed out on the FED chairmanship recently to repeal glass steagle act? That guy?

      • Mig, rape allegations are serious. If there is any substance, let it go to court.

        Other than that, just sounds like Republican propaganda to me. I put it to you that if there was a shred of evidence, the Republicans would have included it in their attacks on the man. They didn’t, so I draw some conclusions from that.

        As for the rest, quite fair enough criticism. Just shows how bad his predecessors and successors in office were.

      • Emess : Há! Let it go to court? The guy who appointed Supreme Court Judges? I completely agree about allegations but if you look it up (BTW Bush was a deviant too! Closeted freak) you’ll discover what scum these people are

      • Yo mig. Have a check who was the only US president in the last 40 years to actually run surplus budgets…….. I’ll give you a hint – he wasn’t a Republican …

      • @HRHolden:

        The surplus is a myth, it was playing with ledger entries re social security (still a liability!):
        “I’ve known about this for years, but now Craig Steiner has taken the time to lay it all out with the numbers and the facts. Steiner also explains that it was the usual doublespeak and government “arithmetic” that made it look like the U.S. government had a surplus.
        Fiscal
        Year Year
        Ending National Debt Deficit
        FY1993 09/30/1993 $4.411488 trillion
        FY1994 09/30/1994 $4.692749 trillion $281.26 billion
        FY1995 09/29/1995 $4.973982 trillion $281.23 billion
        FY1996 09/30/1996 $5.224810 trillion $250.83 billion
        FY1997 09/30/1997 $5.413146 trillion $188.34 billion
        FY1998 09/30/1998 $5.526193 trillion $113.05 billion
        FY1999 09/30/1999 $5.656270 trillion $130.08 billion
        FY2000 09/29/2000 $5.674178 trillion $17.91 billion
        FY2001 09/28/2001 $5.807463 trillion $133.29 billion

        http://www.craigsteiner.us/articles/30

        BTW I could care less about Republican/Democrat, Labor/Liberal, Labor/Torry, Social Democrat/Socialist, etc but by your logic Bush saved the world from markets meltdown after 9/11 and then again in August 08 and gave all these unemployed minorities cheap house funding via Liar/NINJA loans (actually a policy of the Clinton era which supercharged after dot.bust) so accordingly Bush must be considered a great progressive!

        Keep partisan BS out of discussions with me please, and all politicians that get to the top are sick puppies, that’s how they got there – because they are ruthless, and because they can be controlled by their depraved predilictions

    • “Let’s see if Stott Despoja’s new role influences.”

      it will depend on whether Stott Despoja is prepared to be an ambassador for all women including all those minorities (that Abbott & co seem intent on blow-torching any relationship with). Her public persona would seem to indicate that she will be socially liberal and inclusive in this respect

      OR whether she is instructed by her new liberal colleagues, especially those from the far-right, to only be an ambassador for the white, christian, socially conservative, heterosexual, english speaking, medium-income or above women that they seem to have a strong predisposition towards

      I know what version I hope we see, but it’s different to the version that I think we will see. Unfortunately.

      • OR whether she is instructed by her new liberal colleagues, especially those from the far-right, to only be an ambassador for the white, christian, socially conservative, heterosexual, english speaking, medium-income or above women that they seem to have a strong predisposition towards
        It’s quicker to just write “women of calibre”, you know. 🙂

      • ha, true, and I had to laugh at your suggestion.

        But at the same time, light hearted jokes help to disguise the fact that large swathes of our current government are extremely xenophonic, homophobic, religiously intolerant and generally prejudicial towards many minorities that should be able to rely on their government to protect and further their interests, not use political power to further discriminate against them

  7. It was the Gonski debacle.

    Threaten to take money away from schools and the soccer mums will have a politicians head on a platter and served up in the tuck shop faster than a pollie can do a back flip.

    • especially because the reneging of the Gonski commitment was so blatant and prosecuted so badly (by Pyrne) when the original promise “to be on a unity ticket with Labor” was so clear and unambiguous.

      • or all female employees (or partners of male employees) whose livelihoods are now seriously threatened by the holden decision.

  8. The entity is danger to itself. Look at the appointment of Tim Wilson to the Human Rights Commission to ‘restore balance’. All good and fine except Wilson nominated free speech and media freedom as his priorities. Bit rich coming from centrally controlled organisation that runs a wall of silence and obfuscation on most issues. People aren’t that stupid to see the irony in this position. If only he had just said ‘restore balance’ and left it at that.