Positive trade balance to add to September GDP

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released balance of payments data for the September quarter, which revealed a widening of Australia’s current account deficit (CAD) by $619 million (5%) to $12,710 million. The result beat analyst’s estimate, which had expected the CAD to come in at $11,500 million.

The result follows an upward revision to the June quarter’s CAD to $12,090 million from $9,350 million reported previously.

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On a positive note, the net surplus on goods and services rose by $2,867 million (+51%) over the September quarter in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, which is expected to contribute 0.7 percentage points to Australia’s GDP.

On the other hand, Australia’s seasonally adjusted terms-of-trade on net goods and services fell by 3.3% over the September quarter, which will drag on national income growth (see next chart).

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unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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