Permanent arrivals rise for first time in 14 months

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ScreenHunter_07 Mar. 19 12.02

By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of October, which revealed increases in both net long-term and permanent migration into Australia .

In the year to October 2013, there were 679,730 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia – down slightly from the record 680,200 arrivals set in August – partly offset by 371,690 permanent and long-term departures from Australia (see next chart).

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There were 308,040 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in the year to October 2013, representing a 54% increase from the January 2011 trough and more than double the long-run average (see next chart).

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However, while overall net long-term arrivals are booming, it is a different story for permanent migration. In the year to October 2013, permanent arrivals fell by 4% to 152,530, whereas permanent departures rose 4% to 92,370 – just off record highs (see next chart).

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That said, net permanent arrivals into Australia rose for the first time in fourteen months, but are still tracking 8% below the long-run average (see next chart).

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As noted previously, a superficial look at the the ABS data suggests that much of the recent immigration into Australia has been temporary in nature. However, according to the Department of Immigration, around 30% of workers on temporary 457 visas end up becoming permanent residents, suggesting that actual permanent immigration remains at relatively high levels.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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