Newspoll: Abbott support tumbles

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From the AFR:

The Abbott government’s extraordinary collapse in public support has been confirmed in the latest Newspoll, which puts Labor well ahead on a two-party basis and shows the Coalition has lost its carbon tax advantage.

The Newspoll, published in The Australian on Tuesday, finds the Coalition’s election winning margin has been erased in just three months, with Labor now leading the two-party preferred vote with 52 per cent compared to the Abbott government’s 48 per cent.

The poll result confirms an Australian Financial Review/Nielsen poll, published two weeks ago, which was the first since the election to show that voters had dramatically shifted allegiance away from the Coalition, despite the party’s landslide win on September 7.

This translates into a 5.5 per cent swing against the government since the country voted, a shiftstrongly represented in the Financial Review’s Poll of polls.

The Newspoll, whose two-party preferred figure is based on preference flow at this year’s election, also found that the Coalition’s primary vote had fallen by three percentage points to 40 per cent, while Labor had risen by the same amount to 38 per cent.

The Greens primary vote was measured at 9 per cent, up from 8.7 per cent at the election, while ‘others’ polled 13 per cent, up from 12.4 per cent in September.

And from The Australian:

Personal support for Mr Abbott in the past two weeks has suffered its biggest single fall since the election, while Mr Shorten’s support continues to rise. Voter satisfaction with the way the Prime Minister is doing his job fell from 42 per cent two weeks ago to 40 per cent – a total decline of seven percentage points since the end of October. Dissatisfaction with Mr Abbott rose from 42 per cent to 45 per cent last weekend, a rise of 11 points since the end of October.

As Prime Minister, Mr Abbott now has a negative personal satisfaction rating – the difference between satisfaction and dissatisfaction – for the first time, at minus 5 per cent.

The Opposition Leader’s popularity continued to rise, with a jump in satisfaction from 39 per cent to 44 per cent and dissatisfaction unchanged on 27 per cent.

Mr Abbott still leads Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister but his lead has narrowed for the fourth Newspoll survey in a row. Last weekend, Mr Abbott’s support as preferred prime minister fell from 44 per cent to 41 per cent as Mr Shorten’s rose one point to 34 per cent.

Be careful what you wish for, I guess.

Comments

  1. People are realising that electing another party in has not materially changed the state of the economy or their livelihoods. The ‘confidence bump’ (what little there was) was just a fairytale.

    • It’s all good. Maybe a few more might wake up and realise that Australian politics and the “Left v Right” paradigm is utterly bogus; that the truth is that “they” the “people’s representatives” only represent themselves, and “we” the people are in fact not represented by anyone.

      • Your dreaming Opinion8red! I know this because I used to be comforted in my slumber with the same visage.

        People are more deeply left/right than ever before – heck the comments on this site since the Libs took power can pretty much attest to that. This is by design, a good divide et emperium strategy always makes use of a financial crisis to further separate the yolk from the white and set them up in opposition to each other.

        House prices are the ultimate wedge because you can keep people in both fear and exhilaration as they watch the value of the leverage go up at the time as knowing full well that if they lose their job its all gone in a puff of smoke and they won’t be able to afford another place.

      • +1 Although Keen has some depressing analysis for those thinking it might change. It would seem that people are more motivated by affinity with a group they belong too than any form of logical analysis – and don’t the marketers know it…

        “Individuals, on this account, have a large stake – psychically as well as materially – in maintaining the status of, and their personal standing in, affinity groups whose members are bound by their commitment to shared moral understandings. If opposing positions on a policy-relevant fact – e.g., whether human activity is generating dangerous global warming – came to be seen as symbols of membership in and loyalty to competing groups of this kind, individuals can be expected to display a strong tendency to conform their understanding of whatever evidence they encounter to the position that prevails in theirs.”

        http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/12/9/economy/when-economic-theory-fails-maths-exam

      • “It would seem that people are more motivated by affinity with a group they belong too than any form of logical analysis – and don’t the marketers know it…”

        It’s even worse than that. The more numerate you are, the less likely you are to change your mind when faced with the facts!

        “The polarisation between Republicans and Democrats also increased as numeracy rose – the opposite of what you would expect if you thought political differences over objective data arose from an inability to interpret that data. There was no difference between innumerate Republicans and Democrats when presented with data that implied that gun control failed, but a very large gap between their numerate brethren. The substantial gap between innumerate Republicans and Democrats when presented with data that implied that gun control worked (we’re talking America, after all) became a chasm between the numerates.

        The authors found the implications of their study for democracy rather depressing, since it implies that both evidence and intelligence make precious little difference to how people will vote on contentious issues – which are after all the only ones we do vote on. The need to preserve a sense of identity matters more than the evidence – and this can’t be treated as “irrational” behavior either, because it’s quite rational to want to retain membership of a group that is immediately important to you.

        Numeracy can make you blind. Who’d a thought?”

      • I don’t necessarily entirely buy that line. Intelligent people know that one can use statistics to bolster any side of any argument — for instance you can’t “prove” gun control works or doesn’t work until ALL guns are removed — that means from the hands of government also!!

        Lets not confound issues, somethings you can never get numerical data to “prove” an outcome — at best you can say it informs trends — having said that I’m well aware of confirmation bias that most adults I know suffer from it horribly. Children really don’t.

      • “It’s even worse than that. The more numerate you are, the less likely you are to change your mind when faced with the facts!”

        Perhaps the deeper insight here is to recognise that, in a world where “knowledge” and “science” have become (how? interesting question to ponder) so reverenced as to almost represent a new form of religious Divinity; where “evidence” and “facts” and “proof” have become the Absolute, the Alpha and Omega, the be-all and end-all, such that, on so many issues of real importance, humanity has largely become mired in a state of abject impotence that could be not inappropriately described as “My Facts vs Your facts” or “My Data vs Your data”; in such a world dominated by so-called “knowledge”, the inevitable consequence will be the stoking of personal Pride.

        I “Know” more than you “know”. I have more data. Better data. I can regurgitate more/better/newer “knowledge” than you. Ergo, my position is right, and yours is wrong. End of discussion.

        There is little room left for respecting humble Intuition, not to mention self-less Wisdom or enlightened Understanding.

        When one pauses to consider that the vast majority of the “knowledge” we all imagine ourselves to “possess” is in actuality only acquired 2nd/3rd/4th/-enth hand — accepted as true by each of us primarily (if not exclusively) on the basis of our consciously or subconsciously placing faith in the source, and not on the basis of first hand experience — there really is no excuse for our having Pride in “our” “knowledge”. Sadly, we are all little more than parrots of others’ direct experience. Or what is worse, the tales of others’ alleged experience.

        I was not in the least surprised by Steve’s observations in that piece. Blindingly obvious, it seems to me.

        Methinks Pride is the root of all evil, and none of us are immune.

      • Opinion8red: Second EVERYTHING you laid out — especially the religion of science that is followed most dogmatically by people who have never applied principle of scientific inquiry (observe, generalise, hypothesis, draw up tests for the hypothesis, test, observer, refine, rinse, repeat) in their entire lives (including High School).

        It frustrates me soooooo much!

      • There is little room left for respecting humble Intuition, […]
        Intuition is the spark that ignites the scientific process.

        The process itself is merely about confirming the correctness of the intuition in a formal and repeatable way..

        […] not to mention self-less Wisdom or enlightened Understanding.
        You’ve obviously capitalised these words for a reason. What do _you_ mean when you write them ?

        When one pauses to consider that the vast majority of the “knowledge” we all imagine ourselves to “possess” is in actuality only acquired 2nd/3rd/4th/-enth hand — accepted as true by each of us primarily (if not exclusively) on the basis of our consciously or subconsciously placing faith in the source, and not on the basis of first hand experience — there really is no excuse for our having Pride in “our” “knowledge”. Sadly, we are all little more than parrots of others’ direct experience. Or what is worse, the tales of others’ alleged experience.
        There is nothing new in this. It’s been true since before the first person to discover rubbing two sticks together started a fire taught that to someone else.

        I’m at a little bit of a loss as to why we should be so down on one of the fundamental reasons for the success of our species (and societies within it) – the ability to learn from others.

      • Drsmithy: Incorrect, the great advantage of our species is rational analysis and its consequential innovation.

        Parroting or monkeying behaviour is what we do as kids, not adults! As adult we should think things through, hopefully having a command of the Trivium and Quadrivium.

      • Incorrect, the great advantage of our species is rational analysis and its consequential innovation.
        Even a rat can figure out how to get past a few obstacles to reach the cheese. Heck, an Octopus can figure out how to unscrew the lid of a jar to get food out of it.

        “Rational analysis and its consequential innovation” aren’t even vaguely unique attributes of humanity.

        Parroting or monkeying behaviour is what we do as kids, not adults!
        Yes you do.

        Everything you’ve ever been taught as an adult is “parroting or monkeying [another’s] behaviour” at a basic level. Did you understand the inner workings of a car’s engine before you knew how to push the accelerator to go faster ? Did you assemble a computer from parts before you double-clicked your first icon or typed your first command ? Etc.

        You might take that taught knowledge and leverage it to discover something else, but it is the taught knowledge that enables you to make that discovery.

        The benefit this almost unique ability delivers to us as both individuals and a species is the time advantage of not having to derive those things from first principles every generation. It’s particularly powerful on the species level because it’s exponential growth.

        “If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.”
        – Isaac Newton

        Do you think we would have gotten to the moon if all those rocket scientists had to discover Newton’s laws for themselves ? Do you think we’d be able to fly around the world if every aeronautical engineer had to duplicate the Wright brothers work ?

      • Drsmithy: Exactly standing on the shoulders of giants, and surpassing and giving a leg up to the next. Innovation is not monkeying or parroting ipso facto

        Standing on the shoulders of midgets, as you’d prefer so as not to exclude anyone, only results on you getting on your knees!

      • Exactly standing on the shoulders of giants, and surpassing and giving a leg up to the next. Innovation is not monkeying or parroting ipso facto
        Innovation relies on that “monkeying or parroting”. Or, as those of us whose ideologies don’t embody a pathological fear of admitting someone else taught us something refer to it, “knowledge”.

        Standing on the shoulders of midgets, as you’d prefer so as not to exclude anyone, only results on you getting on your knees!
        You have NFI what you’re talking about. Unlike an elitest like yourself, my belief is that everyone is capable of excelling in some field, and those who achieve less than others do not deserve ridicule and contempt simply because their outcomes were not as good.

    • Thanks for posting that link Hixtar. What a classic coming from Reith!

      “Labor’s standard response to every policy debate is to oppose the government regardless of the merits. Labor has form on these tactics; it was totally negative towards the Howard government from 1996 to 2007. Labor kids itself that Abbott was always negative on Labor policy so they are justified to respond to Abbott with his own medicine.”

  2. Mr Jellyback being punished for appeasing the rentseekers.

    Time to bring back MT for some rigour in economic analysis and policy.

  3. I have no proof – but maybe people are getting pissed off with high migration policies shoved down our throats. They justifiably blame whoever is in power.

  4. Asking child care providers to return $62.5m to improve child care worker wages probably wont improve things any. Sense another Gonski moment brewing.

    • Yes, what a ludicrous political statement for the LNP to try on.

      I say political statement because the agreements were made under the condition that the centres receiving the funds created EBA’s with their workers.

      The LNP has suggested that this was designed to bolster union membership. Last I heard, EBA’s were between employers and their workers. You don’t have to be a member of a union to sign up to an EBA.

      Pathetic.

  5. In the three months since the election, Abbott has managed to prove conclusively that he has absolutely no idea how to run a Government or the country, is hopelessly out of touch with community opinions and that venomous bullying is no substitute for rational policy.

    Ministers are already leaking against each other and against the Credlin/Abbott power duopoly. Considering the LNP has no economic policy, no fiscal strategy, no cohesive investment or productivity framework and no internal problem-solving system, they will inevitably make a complete hash of things.

    The central element in all this is, of course, the dissembling, malicious and arrogant Abbott – a fraudulent wanne-be who seems half-dazed most of the time, is a pure policy slouch, is a subscriber to various archaic and irrational dogmas and is becoming more maladroit every week.

    2PP @ 48% vastly overstates the support they are entitled to expect.

    • But its not just Abbott, its the whole LNP. So little evidence of any serious policy development effort whilst in opposition, too busy saying “no” & hoping the govt would fall. Unsurprising they are now floundering badly. I wonder how many voters will think its going to be ok to just reverse everything brought in by the prior govt? In the absence of having done the work themselves, I predict the LNP, especially the tea party sympathisers which seem to have the upper hand, to revert to the song sheet laid out for them by the IPA.

      • Yup! And bringing in more taxes to replace the Carbon tax is just plain gifting to special interests. Nothings changed as expected and why I, like Bluebird, voted invalid (actually wrote in Steve Morris and ticked it) in the lower house. Senate wasn’t much better here in Vic.