Abbott finds a backbone

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From the PM this morning:

“I am sure Qantas management are doing their best and let’s hope they can get the business in a position where it can continue to operate profitably,” he said.

But Mr Abbott suggested he may be open to changes to the Qantas Sale Act to allow greater foreign ownership.

He says while he would prefer to see the company kept in majority Australian hands he would be “happy to look at it” if Qantas proposed changes to the Act with no cost to taxpayers.

“If it’s a choice between a greater foreign stake in Qantas and taxpayer subsidy I ask the people of Australia – what do you prefer?”

Good stuff, and on Holden:

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“Holden talks to my ministers, and I think the message we’re getting from Holden is they’re in two minds,” Mr Abbott told radio station 3AW.

“I would like them to clarify exactly what their position is. I think they’re weighing their options and I think they owe it to the workforce, they owe it to the suppliers, they owe it to the people of Australia to say what they’re doing. Are they staying or are they going?”

Mr Abbott said he wanted Holden to stay and for the Australian motor industry to “flourish” but there would not be any further money offered by the government to the industry over and above the “generous” support of about $500 million a year doled out by taxpayers.

“There is more than enough money there on the table,” Mr Abbott said. “There is no more.”

While Abbott’s take on the two industries is consistent, it does ignore some realities. First, there would likely be only minor adverse employment effects if Qantas folded, but big ramifications if car assembly ceased.

The former is a service industry, which necessarily requires employment to be performed locally. Even in the unlikely event that Qantas collapsed entirely, airline services would be performed by an expanded Virgin or another entrant, such as Singapore Airlines. In either case, the new supplier would still need to employ Australian workers.

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By contrast, car making is tradable, and employment would shift offshore in the event that the local assembly industry collapsed, placing in jeopardy some 45,000 to 50,000 jobs just as the once-in-a-century mining investment boom is unwinding.

In short, the different employment effects from the two industries requires a different policy approach.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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