Weekly RP Data Australian house price update

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ScreenHunter_07 Mar. 20 20.55

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 28 November 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, fell by 0.15%. This followed last week’s flat result (see next chart).

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Values fell in three major capitals and rose in two (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_449 Nov. 29 07.53

Values are up 0.10% so far in November, with three major capitals recording rises and two falls (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_450 Nov. 29 07.54
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Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 8.35% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

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Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 8.08% at the 5-city level, again with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

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The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney and to a lesser extent Melbourne (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_453 Nov. 29 07.57
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Values are up 2.2% since the 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney, with Perth values also up modestly and all of the other major markets still in negative territory (see next chart).

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However, major capital home values have now gained 10.4% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_455 Nov. 29 07.59

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a very short timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.